The Tug of War Continues

Op-Ed

While part of the political opposition was holding the “Last Supper” in Amsterdam, the rest decided to announce the names of their respective presidential candidates. The Labor Party unsurprisingly named Shalva Natelashvili, European Georgia hinted at Davit Bakradze, and Ana Dolidze from the Justice Committee also received an invitation for candidacy from the oppositional wing. It seems the idea of uniting around a single oppositional candidate doesn’t seem legit any more, and nor would a meeting with the third President of Georgia be a solution. But anyhow, what was the purpose of the meeting in Amsterdam? We can look for the answers not in Amsterdam, but in Tbilisi.

The main political topic in the country is the return of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili to politics. We can presume Georgian Dream (GD) is suffering and quick action needed to be taken, before the rust set in. Ivanishvili made a horrible pre-election mistake once before, during the selection of his human resources, and it could turn out fatal if he fails to act on the current corrosion within his party, especially in light of the third President of Georgia talking openly about his preparations for a new revolution.

The meeting in Amsterdam was clearly held to show Ivanishvili that Saakashvili is not alone in the alleged future revolution and that people who will be leaving the Georgian Dream might join those standing beside him now.

Or else, that very small portion of two-man parties who gathered in Amsterdam clearly can’t have victory over Ivanishvili, and Saakashvili knows this very well. The Khoni and Vani elections should have played a major role in this “great deed,” where Gigi Ugulava, who left the National Movement for European Georgia, would win. Even the Khoni and Vani population was amazed at how passive GD was there, but the “second coming” of Ivanishvili right before the elections made a radical change. The governmental resource “machine” switched on and Ugulava lost. Ivanishvili’s words about himself before coming to the government proved true: “I have the ability to rate the situation well and take urgent measures.”

This is undoubtedly why Saakashvili called for his former co-party members to unite in a coalition and attack the Ivanishvili citadel jointly. “I would be happy if Gigi Ugulava had won in the elections of Vani and Khoni, but there wasn’t even a 1% chance of it,” the ex-president said. “You can’t sit at the same table with cheaters to play cards. Gigi and members of his party should join us in fighting the cheaters out of the government.”

Although Ugulava has yet to take him up on this offer, coming out openly against Saakashvili’s plan for getting rid of Ivanishvili, we still don’t know how long this refusal will last, because everything still depends on the “rusting and recovery” processes which have already started in the government.

In this regard, the Armenian events could also serve as a warning signal. If things continue the way they are, and GD continues to “rust,” it might become solid ground for a revolution this upcoming October. Even despite the fact that the local expert cohort says that there is “no prerequisite” for a revolution in reality, nor was there a seemingly obvious one in Yerevan. As for the meeting in Amsterdam, of course it wasn’t followed by much feedback or reaction, but whether we want it or not, Georgian politics will remain bipolar, with Saakashvili and Ivanishvili at the opposite sides. Hence, those who wish to stay in politics must make their choice now, because tomorrow it might be too late.

By Zaza Jgarkava