Russia-Georgia Relations Stuck, Abkhazia & Samachablo Fluid

The political and economic situation in the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and Samachablo (South Ossetia) is fluid. Recent reports by various local and international organizations point to difficult conditions under which the population lives in those regions and what progress is being made to alleviate the situation.

The ‘Consolidated Report on the Conflict in Georgia’ of the Council of Europe, which covers the period from April to September 2018, provides interesting details on how the peace process is going with Abkhazia and Samachablo.

The 44th round of the Geneva International Discussions (GID) was held on 20 June. According to the Co-Chairs, the security situation on the ground was assessed by the participants as relatively calm and stable. There were diverging positions expressed by the participants on a draft joint statement on the non-use of force.

Despite the differences, the Co-Chairs claimed to be continuing their work on this issue. However, it is difficult to fathom that any meaningful progress could be made as the positions of the breakaway de facto leaders go against what the Georgian central government claims, with Tbilisi expecting the statement on non-use of force to lead to the full implementation of the 12 August 2008 Ceasefire Agreement and international security arrangements on the ground.

The 45th round of the GID was held on 10 October, the 10th anniversary of the launch of the format. Overall, it can be argued that the core issues on the GID agenda still remain to be resolved. Tbilisi and de facto leaders of the breakaway regions cannot agree on crucial issues which are linked to geopolitical differences between Georgia and Russia.

A further problem which affects the climate of the GID discussions: the cases of the tragic deaths and killings of Georgian citizens in conflict-affected areas. While there is a need to have a proper investigation into those tragic deaths, and the participants of the GID sessions often say this, no real steps towards justice have been made.

Looking at Russia-Georgia relations over the past 25 years, we tend to overemphasize mistakes made by the Georgian governments, or solely stress how geopolitically active Moscow has been in the South Caucasus. However, if we look closer at the dynamics of the bilateral relations, one might find a strong consistency on the side of the Georgian leaders.

From today’s perspective, some in Georgia would think that the Georgian government could have solved the issue by giving up its EU/NATO membership stance and embracing a pro-Russian position under Russian guarantees that Abkhazia and Samachablo would rejoin Tbilisi. But in geopolitics, this thinking does not always work, as Georgia’s geographic position allows Tbilisi to be more active as a regional transit hub, and not be oriented solely towards Russia.

However, this also does not preclude Georgia and Russia from talking to each other.

Regional developments and, most importantly, the geographic situation, show that Russia and Georgia cannot avoid each other. Indeed, recently it was reported that, following Georgia, on 18 May, Russia also signed a contract with the Swiss company SGS on the monitoring of cargo goods passing through the border with Georgia, as part of the 2011 accords on Russia’s accession to the WTO. Both Russia and Georgia have reiterated that they intend now to move forward with the practical implementation of the agreement.

But improving relations with the Russian government is one foreign policy issue, yet another is winning on the ground in Abkhazia and Samachablo through economic and socio-cultural means. In that sense an interesting move by Tbilisi was announced on 4 April, when the government approved the “Step to a Better Future” peace initiative consisting of a set of proposals to facilitate trade, education and mobility to the benefit of conflict-affected communities in Abkhazia and Samachablo through a special, status-neutral approach.

Although the overall security situation on the ground was assessed as relatively stable and calm, in meetings with the delegation, the Georgian officials described the security environment as fragile.

The political situation in the regions remains volatile. For example, in Abkhazia the opposition parties have recently called on de facto President Khajimba to refrain from seeking “re-elections” in 2019 and have announced mass rallies in the coming months.

Inter-ethnic problems also increase as the ethnic Georgian population in Abkhazia continued to face a complex and uncertain situation regarding their basic documentation. Access to education in the native language remains a divisive issue in Abkhazia. While the Abkhaz language is considered to have remained for years in a vulnerable position due to lack of material support. In schools in Ochamchire and Tkvarcheli, instruction is offered exclusively in the Russian language whereas in Upper Gali schools, Georgian is taught as a foreign language and literature for two hours per week.

In Samachablo, active so-called “borderization” is ongoing. Its effects are felt in particular as regards agricultural livelihoods. In many cases, farm land has been effectively cut off in a number of villages. “Unauthorized” crossings continue to be treated by the de facto authorities as violations of the so-called “border regime,” leading to detention and administrative punishment of those concerned.

Nevertheless, the regions are still connected to the rest of Georgia. The above-mentioned “Consolidate Report” states that following the 2017 closure of the two crossing points into/from Abkhazia in Nabakhevi and Otobaia, around 3,000 people per day use the main bridge over the Inguri River to enter Samegrelo. As to the situation in Samachablo, international observers estimate that some 450 crossings per day take place along line.

Thus, while Georgia-Russia relations remain stuck because of large geopolitical differences, on the ground the situation is fluid and leaves a significant space for moves to be made by Tbilisi to gradually gain advantages on the ground. Various steps should be made through which ethnic groupings living in both territories can be attracted to better economic and overall social life offered by Tbilisi. In that sense, the “Step to a Better Future” peace initiative is an interesting one with great potential.

By Emil Avdaliani

Photo: Crossing the Abkhazia-Georgia border at the Enguri River. By Clay Gilliland/CC BY-SA 2.0