This Week’s Russia-Ukraine Clash Explained
The roots of the conflict that escalated over the weekend stem from the Euromaidan movement in early 2014, which ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. In March 2014, Russia called an illegal referendum in the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, which led to the peninsula’s annexation into the Russian Federation. Many have analyzed that move as a response to Ukraine’s anti-Russia sentiment, a signal that Russia still considers Ukraine part of its rightful sphere of influence, and a reminder to Kiev that the West it so courts will not come to its rescue against Russian military power. The conflict continued with Russian-backed military intervention, supporting anti-government, pro-Russian rebels in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. The war in Donbass has continued with low-level fighting for more than four years now.
The latest move by Russia came early Sunday morning, November 25, when Russian naval forces opened fire and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels. The two gunboats and one tugboat had a total of 23 sailors on board, 12 of whom have been sentenced to two months in Russian custody by a court in Simferopol, Crimea, pending trial for trespassing over the Russian border, a crime with a sentence of up to six years. The Ukrainian government reported that six of its crew members were injured in the clash, while Russia’s FSB says it was only three.
The Ukrainian ships were stopped while attempting to travel from a port in Odessa to the town of Mariupol in the Sea of Azov, blocked by a large Russian cargo ship that was strategically parked beneath the Crimea Bridge. The newly completed 18.1 km bridge, financed and built by Russia to connect the mainland with Crimea, spans the Kerch Strait, a narrow passageway leading into the Sea of Azov. Since the completion of the bridge, Russian naval vessels have been stopping Ukrainian ships passing through the strait and demanding to inspect them. On August 7, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation announced the temporary closure of the Kerch Strait – an international waterway. Official statements explained that the closure was related to construction on the Crimea Bridge, but on August 9 it was announced that Russian naval vessels would still be allowed to transit the Strait. Russian news agency TASS said in late September that Ukrainian ships were again being granted passage through the Kerch Strait “with due permission from Russian control agencies as required under law.”
The attempted movement of Ukrainian ships into the Sea of Azov Sunday has been interpreted as an attempt to prevent Russia from taking full control of the Sea, an important shipping lane supporting Ukrainian industry.
The Russian military claims that the Ukrainian ships entered Russian territorial waters illegally, ignored instructions and warnings from Russian ships, and were making “dangerous maneuvers.” A 2003 treaty between Moscow and Kiev maintains that the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov are shared territorial waters. The Russian military also send two fighter jets and a helicopter to the Strait, conducting low, slow flyovers over the water. At about 4 am local time on Monday, the Kerch Strait reopened for civilian maritime traffic, according to TASS.
President Petro Poroshenko met with senior military aides Monday morning to discuss a response to the incident, and the Verkhovna Rada subsequently approved 30 days of martial law in coastal territories near the conflict site. The period of martial law went into effect on Wednesday. The decree, Poroshenko assured citizens during a televised address Monday, will not restrict the rights of any Ukrainians, nor would elections scheduled for early next year be affected. “Ukraine is not planning a war against anyone,” said Poroshenko, affirming that Ukraine will uphold its side of the Minsk Agreements, peace deals signed with Russia and pro-Russian separatists in 2014 and 2015.
This is Ukraine’s first ever imposition of martial law, and several pundits have expressed concern that the move could threaten the young, unsteady democracy and escalate the war in Donbass. Martial law includes several provisions: bans on public gatherings, media restrictions, limits on the movement of Ukrainians and foreign nationals, and the ability to suspend elections, as the Ukrainian government deems necessary.
Just hours after the declaration of martial law, the United Nations held an emergency session on the naval clash in the Black Sea. The US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, addressed Russia during the session, calling their actions an “outrageous violation” of Ukraine's sovereignty and called on the international community to condemn Russia's “arrogant...outlaw actions.” The European Union called on Russia to “restore freedom of passage at the Kerch Strait” and NATO added that it “fully supports Ukraine's sovereignty and its territorial integrity, including its navigational rights in its territorial waters.” President Poroshenko has asked NATO to send ships to defend their claims.
In an interview with the Washington Post on November 27, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering canceling a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina November 30-December 1, pending a “full report” on the Kerch Strait clash from his national security team. Despite insisting, “I don't like that aggression. I don't want that aggression at all,” the meeting has not been officially canceled and is expected to go ahead as planned.
Experts have also predicted that Russia’s long-term goal is to occupy and control Mariupol and surrounding territories to create a land bridge from Russia to Crimea. Russia’s aggressive strategy towards its neighbors in recent years is to precede a major geopolitical move with a small, offensive one, such as ramming a tugboat. Many analysts anticipate that the slow-burning, long, drawn-out conflict in Eastern Ukraine will now extend into the water, further crippling the Ukrainian economy. The series of aggressive moves by Russia can be seen as part of a pattern, a strategy of military-political influence that was also used in Georgia in August 2008, leading to the occupation of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and “South Ossetia.”
By Samantha Guthrie
Image source: rferl.org