Surprises, No Surprises
Op-Ed
Last week, Official Tbilisi received messages of threat and warning from the Defense and the Deputy Interior ministers of Russia. Whether the threat from Sergey Shoygu and warning from Grigory Karasin are interconnected is presently unknown, but if we take into consideration their respective work profiles, we can clearly imagine the possible reason behind it and just what “surprises” might await us.
At the collegium session of the Ministry, Shoygu blamed NATO for threatening global security. He was especially unhappy with the fact that NATO has doubled its military trainings, with both Ukrainian and Georgians participating. “In such circumstances, we are forced to provide an adequate response, carrying out strategic containment events with plans of stepping up combat capabilities of military formations and units,” he stressed. His promise was fulfilled as he quickly generated large-scale military trainings in the occupied region of Tskhinvali. What other plans Shoygu has on the matter of the so-called security balance in the region will perhaps be revealed in future; for now, the Defense Minister has taken a time-out. Interestingly, though, while we were in a way accustomed to receiving threats from said Ministry, this was not so typical of the Russian diplomacy. But this time, before meeting his Georgian colleague, Grigory Karasin mentioned a surprise that would soon be revealed, to journalists in Prague. By tradition, the primary subject of meetings between Karasin and Abashidze is economy; hence, we can guess that the surprises will be coming specifically from that area.
Consider tourism and infrastructure: this sphere is completely tied-up with the Russian market, as is the export of agricultural goods. So, if Russia closes its market and bans touristic relations with Georgia, the country’s budget can be easily reduced by half, causing inflation of the Lari and a sudden plunge back to the 90s.
It seems that the change of meeting place for negotiations between the Russian diplomat and his Georgian colleague were not the only change we were to witness, but also the tone of voice. Where Karasin and Abashidze used to meet in Prague’s Hotel Diplomat, this year they moved to Augustine. More importantly, not a single instance can we recall within the period of the last five years, when Karasin started the negotiations with a threat, nor when he disclosed a secret about his Georgian colleague after the meeting. But never say never: Zurab Abashidze had met earlier with the informal leader of Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili. Nobody knew the details of their private session until we all found out from Karasin that he not only knew what they talked about but was also aware of the tone with which Ivanishvili addressed Abashidze. Why the Russian diplomat decided to stress the tone of voice is ambiguous, but we can guess that he implied that the invisible hand of the Kremlin came as far as Sololaki. Meaning that Moscow is well-aware of what is being discussed in Ivanishvili’s glass palace and what messages his emissaries carry to the meetings with Russian diplomats.
Political analysts believe that Moscow might be pressuring Ivanishvili, who could be facing a serious dilemma: “There is pressure on Ivanishvili because of this. Practically defending the real sovereignty of Georgia is causing the exacerbation of relations with Russia, which is a serious threat,” claims Ghia Nodia, Chairman of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy, and Development. He does not rule out that if facing a choice, Ivanishvili could give up the sovereignty of Georgia in favor of Russia. And the latter could be directly connected with the Anaklia Port project, which could be terminated as a result.
Founder of the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center, Nodar Kharshiladze, stated in TV program ‘Accents’ that Ivanishvili received direct instructions about Anaklia from the Kremlin, and that the psychological pressure could result in him adopting rougher methods of game within the country.
Why the port of Anaklia is in the role of “black cat” in Georgian-Russian relations will be analyzed as we witness the developments of Georgian politics in the near future. Before that, what Georgians are trying to find out is whose personal representative is participating in the Georgia-Russian negotiations, that of PM Mamuka Bakhtadze or of Chairman of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili. For now, the only thing which is clear is that it is Ivanishvili with whom Abashidze consults before meeting Karasin and bringing his messages to Prague, not PM Bakhtadze.
By Zaza Jgarkava
Image source: pxhere.com