On Garibashvili’s Return
Former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili is returning, or, to be more precise, has been brought back into big politics. Brought back by the one who made him leave four years ago. The very first comments suggested that Ivanishvili’s decision was a surprise to both the governmental party and Garibashvili himself. Who would have imagined such a twist, when four years ago the ex-PM not only resigned from his post, but also left politics and even Ivanishvili’s team.
Four years ago, Garibashvili became aware that he had to leave when was getting ready to address the country in his New Year’s speech: leave his post and Ivanishvili’s team. We learned this from the content of his speech, in which the most important part was not what the PM told the people, but rather what he did not. We remember his face and confounded expression, when instead of thanking Ivanishvili, who had introduced him to big politics and made him the first politician of the country, or Georgian Dream, which made a 33-year-old unknown’s triumph possible, he thanked his wife, Nanuka Tamazashvili. This can be read as Garibashvili’s reaction or his answer to Ivanishvili at the time.
Upon returning to politics, Garibashvili did not mention his wife. This time, he thanked Ivanishvili, who, at the most crucial moment, trusted him to lead the Georgian Dream. It is a big responsibility and it seems that the former distresses have been forgotten and the Garibashvili-Ivanishvili relationship is to begin afresh. Now, everything depends on Garibashvili: his new post is as important as the former, as he needs to reanimate the governmental party and ensure their triumph in the 2020 parliamentary elections.
Whether GD can be reanimated is a different topic, as today the situation is mixed up to the point where we are witnessing radical changes almost daily. Past practices suggest that as we get closer to the elections, this will further exacerbate. As such, a lot will depend on Garibashvili, whose very first mission is surely to neutralize Kaladze’s camp in the party.
It is obvious that lately, since Garibashvili’s return, the Mayor of Tbilisi has been quiet and he has not been seen to be as actively participating in inner party developments; events of major importance have been left beyond his comment, for instance, Justice Minister Tsulukiani’s presence or withdrawal from the Georgian Dream, as well as the issue of impeachment of the Head of Parliament Irakli Kobakhidze. Such “trivial” events wouldn’t have been left unnoticed by the sharp eye of Kaladze in a normal setting.
Political expert Ghia Nodia believes that Garibashvili’s return is connected with “neutralizing” either Kaladze or Kobakhidze; however, as the latter has some support from Ivanishvili, most probably it would mean a decline for Kaladze. Nodia also thinks that this is the very reason for Kaladze’s silence, as he “must be afraid of” something, trying to keep out of Ivanishvili’s sight. But there are other ideas circulating too. Former GD supporter, political analyst Archil Gamzardia thinks that most likely Kobakhidze will be the one facing problems, because Georgian Dream needs Kaladze’s persona more. Garibashvili should be seen as a rival to Kobakhidze rather than Kaladze, then. As for the political passivity of the latter, Gamzardia thinks that it is due to him being busy with the responsibilities of majorship, which doesn’t leave enough time for political activities.
The fact that Garibashvili’s return is aimed at creating a new political center point can be further argued, as he has even hired a company that will work on bringing new faces into the party by the time the 2020 election campaign begins. But who the newbies would be substituting will only be clear in future. One thing for sure, though: the governmental party is divided into the camps of Kaladze, Kobakhidze, Beselia, Chugoshvili and Ivanishvili himself.
Exactly through the selection of the fittest within these groups will the new Georgian Dream be comprised, which is why Garibashvili was reintroduced by the billionaire. Some believe that this will bring a “second breath” to the party before the elections. However, at the moment, it is the National Movement that seems to be having the privileges, because whether positive or not, such a move puts doubt on the stability of the government. And this “doubted bureaucracy” will not be favorable for the GD party in the elections. Hence, both with or without Garibashvili, Ivanishvili is still facing the dilemma of how to handle the Georgian Dream. He wants to have trustworthy people around him, but for now, he is surrounded by average traitors.
By Zaza Jgarkava
Image source: tabula.ge