Sharing Is Caring: But Can Ivanishvili Do It?
Op-Ed
May 19 is approaching and the battle for one vacant mandate, five mayors of different towns and eight places in the city councils is entering the final stage. Although the elections are happening in different regions, political experts think that Zugdidi will be the center prone to the biggest confrontations, with Sandra Roelofs, the wife of ex-President Saakashvili, running for the mayoral post against the governmental candidate in the capital of the Samegrelo region.
Zugdidi has been the Waterloo for many governments throughout history. It was the very city where the first and second presidents of Georgia lost their positions and where rising star of Georgian politics and the Georgian Dream Irakli Alasania was defeated. And there were many others for whom elections in this city proved fatal, which is why the upcoming elections there are especially interesting. The fact that Zugdidi could be decisive for Georgian Dream is also obvious from the fact that Bidizna Ivanishvili himself has been seen there recently. Moreover, the government’s candidate running for Mayor, Giorgi Shengelia, was introduced to the local public by some of the most influential GD members. What is most striking in the pre-election campaign is that instead of ranting about the “bloody nine years” and “cannibal Nazis” of the United National Movement, this time the governmental candidate has been talking about sorting the problems in education and social welfare. From time to time, he has even discussed the pros and cons of a coalitional government. So, presumably, it has finally occurred to the Dreamers that the theme of Saakashvili and his downsides has expired, and the electorate is desperately in need of novelty.
Nevertheless, it is quite confusing that they started talking about a coalitional government, as forming one would only be possible after the results of the elections of 2020 are known. Talking about it as early as a year ahead could mean that the governing party is facing a serious dilemma. Just who does the governmental party plan to form the coalition with? Gia Abashidze, a political analyst who is quite close to the governmental circles, says Ivanishvili is serious about it: “It is highly possible that a coalitional government will be formed out of the constructive opposition. We do not know how the political power balance will be divided in 2020, but numerous changes will happen. Plenty of people will join and be resurrected in politics. Who will stand where and how [is the question],” Abashidze said.
Who will that “lucky person” be with whom the governmental party decides to work? Logically, that political power should be the United National Movement, because it will be the second party getting the most votes. Maybe it will work the other way around and it will be the National Movement that needs coupling up with the Dream.
Political expert Ramaz Sakvarelidze says that the situation is difficult, as the party behind the idea of the coalition does not quite understand the essence of a coalition itself. “What coalition are we talking about when there are no two parties of similar size? Talking about a coalition has become like flirting. What would the basis for this coalitional government be? If they can make decisions without each other, then it is unclear why they would want to form a coalition. This is what they haven’t thought about. We have a country governed by a single party, so in this case, how do they imagine a coalitional government working?” Sakvarelidze asked.
Constitutionalist Vakhtang Dzabiradze is also pessimistic about the success of such a scheme, noting that a coalitional government should not be the main goal, because forming it would depend on the election results in the event that neither of the political powers has enough mandates to complete the government. “If anyone is really thinking about fixing the situation in the country, they should be thinking about forming a government which will be both very active and very appealing to the majority of its citizens, rather than thinking about forming a coalitional government,” Dzabiradze opined.
Whether the Georgian Dream will be able to form a coalition at all will be seen in future. Yet, it is quite difficult to believe that Ivanishvili will be ready to share the governmental powers with somebody else, or even to make a deal with them in order to create an entourage of sharing. Most likely, the coalitional government scenario will in reality be part of the same old-same old, as we witnessed when Salome Zurabishvili was declared an independent candidate and who today is nothing more than a source of bother to the Dreamers.
By Zaza Jgarkava
Image source: 1tv.ge