On Ivanishvili’s Latest Promise
Op-Ed
Without the help of the opposition, Georgian Dream won’t be able to execute constitutional changes – said the Vice Speaker of Parliament, Tamar Chugoshvili. And the point is becoming ever more relevant as the political elite becomes ever more doubtful of the promise given by Bidzina Ivanishvili to conduct the 2020 Parliamentary elections using a proportional system. And truly, if the amendment doesn’t take place and the 114 MPs do not vote for it, Ivanishvili’s public statement will be no more valid than his previous statements about a “remarkable democracy,” “cutting utility costs in half” and “zero interest loans.”
Today, the parliamentary majority is comprised of 110 MPs, uniting all members of the Georgian Dream, while a minority of 20 MPs is from the European Georgia party. The United National Movement fraction has a total of 6 MPs, but the authority of one of them, Nika Melia, has been suspended and depends on the verdict of the court. The same fate was shared by majority MP Zakaria Kutsnashvili. As for the fraction Alliance of Patriots, they have 7 MPs, and there are five more MPs who have left the majority. This makes a total of 148 MPs, and whether Ivanishvili’s promise will be kept or not depends solely on them.
The parliamentary minority has openly confirmed its readiness to support the amendment, as did the UNM, making a total of 26 votes. The five members who left the GD also said they will support the proportional system of elections, and so did the seven Patriots. This makes it 38 guaranteed votes. As such, the abovementioned fears of the Vice Speaker are connected not with the decision of the oppositional parties, but with that of the majority. Quite possibly, Chugoshvili fears it will be hard to gather the 74 votes needed to support the amendment, and this sounds reasonable enough. To clear things up, voting for the initiative would mean a ruling death sentence, hence Georgian Dream will need to lead difficult trade negotiations with the MPs. But what could the topic of the trade be? Whether a guaranteed place in the election list or winning a state tender, it is yet unknown. There is a chance that the MPs will reject all the offers and in this case, it is hard to imagine how Bidzina’s promise will be carried out.
The first meeting of the government and opposition was held in Kakheti against the backdrop of the stated fears and saw the discussion of rules for counting the mandates, with Georgian Dream offering the following scheme: the number of votes that a party gets should be multiplied by 150 and divided by the number of votes that all the parties got altogether, while the remaining mandates should be allocated to parties with better results.
Despite the mathematics offered by GD, the fears the opposition voiced are still connected to the Vice Speaker’s statement, showing her doubt of the loyalty of her own party members. Her words have ignited different visions about the future of Ivanishvili’s promise on conducting the 2020 parliamentary elections proportionally. The most popular idea that has been heard of late is that the government of PM Bakhtadze will be replaced by that of a “technical government,” but following a different scenario, and that the elections of 2020 could be postponed to the autumn of 2021. Postponing the elections would also mean voting for the constitutional amendment. Clearly, this road too leads to the majority and minority of the parliament. Although the GD Chairman categorically rules out the described scenario, the facts still imply otherwise. The fate of Georgia’s future election system lies solely in the hands of the majority’s MPs, and it is they who dictate the conditions.
By Zaza Jgarkava
Image source: Wikipedia