Georgia: Geopolitical Forecast for 2020
Op-Ed
The year 2020 will be important for Georgia in many ways. Parliamentary elections will be a defining moment for the country's internal and foreign policy development.
No political power in the past three decades of Georgia's independence ever managed to remain in power for a third consecutive term and yet there are chances that the current government might do so, making it the longest serving government in Georgia's recent history.
In Georgia, election years tend to be politically tense, full of incriminations and demonstrations in major Georgian cities. 2020 will be no different. But though many argue that a change of government will happen, many trends indicate that the current government will remain in power.
That said, even if there are government changes in 2020, the country's foreign policy is unlikely to change.
Georgia will continue finding itself between its EU aspirations and a geopolitically hostile Russia. It will be important for Tbilisi to see a reinvigorated EU. The EU is likely to ratchet up pressure on Russia by providing further financial support to Tbilisi, keeping the existing sanctions on Russia. NATO could be another tool to influence Moscow’s behavior in the region, although membership for Georgia will remain a far-off perspective.
Tbilisi will strive to rebalance Moscow’s pressure by strengthening its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan within the trilateral format.
Yet another actor for balancing out Russian geopolitical pressure will be China, with its economic role in the region. Tbilisi and Beijing in 2020 will strive to build deeper economic relations perhaps through investments and trade. All trends show that China will continue seeing Georgia, with its Black Sea ports of Batumi and Poti, as a link for its massive ‘Belt and Road’ initiative. However, it is also important to note that the Chinese involvement in the region will surely continue to be limited only to economics. 2020 will still be early to say that the deeper Beijing involves itself in defending its assets around the world, the greater the possibility that China will eventually become a security partner in the South Caucasus.
There will be some issues where China will avoid causing Moscow's concerns and some where it may cooperate.
For Georgia in 2020, EU and NATO aspirations will stay at the heart of the country's foreign policy. Though there are claims that Tbilisi's foreign policy is experiencing changes, trends on a regional and global level show that Georgia will remain firmly in the pro-Western camp.
Thus, Georgia, being at the crossroads of East and West, has again found itself in difficult geopolitical circumstances when numerous regional powers compete with each other to project influence into the South Caucasus. Georgia today pursues what it has historically: the rebalancing of each of its bigger neighbors with the other- Byzantines against the Iranians, Ottomans against the Persians and Russians against Turkey, Iran, China and the EU – these are the geopolitical combinations Georgia has for centuries used to its advantage.
Overall, 2020 will be tense, but as many analysts seem to believe, it is unlikely that there will be a dramatic change internally. And as argued above, possibilities for changes to foreign policy too are minimal.
By Emil Avdaliani