How the Demotion of Medvedev & Surkov Will Affect Georgia & Why Kadyrov Left Chechnya

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The situation in the post-Soviet space is changing quite drastically and unusually. This is especially true for the changes in Russia that began earlier this year. The Russian President, who is soon likely to introduce the title of "Supreme Ruler", like Kazakh Elbasy, is making changes that obviously have a specific goal. While our society mainly focuses on why Dmitry Medvedev was demoted and Mishustin was appointed prime minister, I think it is no less interesting that Ramzan Kadyrov has not performed the duties of the leader of Chechnya for a few weeks now, and in the meantime, Vladislav Surkov, known as the kingmaker, left his position. It is logical to ask what the purpose of these political changes is. According to the general hypothesis, these changes aim at strengthening Russian hegemonic positions in the post-Soviet space and keeping Putin in Russia until at least 2035.

The government vertical in the Russian Federation is changing in an interesting way, which will be quite different during Putin's fourth presidential term. Where, during the Yeltsin era, Chubais and Berezovsky were kingmakers, Surkov is a true kingmaker, having developed the concept by which Putin reinforced his system. Surkov, in fact, oversaw the projects in the North Caucasus, Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region; was one of the authors of Tskhinvali war, and he managed to create Putin's regional clan groups that balanced well the relations within the Kremlin. After the decision made at the Normandy Summit, however, and taking into account the fact that Surkov’s vertical in the breakaway regions of Ukraine was demolished and his poor work during the annexation of Crimea, it seems that Putin could not forgive him the fact that the political situation in de facto Abkhazia has gradually moved out of the sphere of influence of the Kremlin; a situation that will be reflected directly on the situation in that region.

The story of criminals echoes more an unstable and chaotic situation in Abkhazia. The involvement of the so called “thieves-in-law” is more related to controlling the cash flow from Russia. The Kremlin did not like it either, not being a fan of the interference of the said "thieves". At the time, Putin made a deal with "Grandpa Hassan" and others over the Sochi Olympics, making a temporary truce with them, but you know how that ended. "Grandpa Hassan" was attacked, several criminals were imprisoned, and before that well-known "thief-in-law" Ivankov was eliminated. Naturally, this would not have happened without the involvement of the special services. No, the Kremlin does not like it when others interfere in the political processes.

The interference of "thieves-in-law" in Abkhazia was also seen as a disadvantage to Surkov. It was no accident that Nurgaliyev, the first deputy secretary of the Security Council, who is a member of the team of Patrushev and Sechin, paid a visit to Sokhumi. It seems that the so called “Siloviki” have taken over and will control the North Caucasus and the whole Caucasus as well. I said earlier that Putin had reinforced the liberal group, but I think I was wrong: he also reinforced the “Siloviki”. He simply gave a carte blanche to the “Siloviki” to oversee the regional policy. This new political situation in the North Caucasus will have an impact on Georgia.

Surkov and Kadyrov were focused on the situation in the North Caucasus and had little time for Georgia, being less interested in what was going on here. The de facto situation that existed in Georgia and Armenia was profitable to them. Surkov was also in charge of Armenia, and Pashinyan’s revolution was not considered to be his asset. Russia now seems to be stepping up in order to exert pressure on Georgia. US-Georgian relations have become strained and have taken on a geopolitical color. Here's one nuance: the Trump administration is less concerned about what's going on in the Caucasus. President Trump is listening to the advice of the group working on Georgia, a fact evidenced in 2018 by Trump’s removing the term "Caucasus" from the national security strategy and replacing it with "Central Asia", while under the previous three administrations, namely during Clinton, Bush-Jr. and Obama, the Caucasus enjoyed a geostrategic status. That is why the ruling “Georgian Dream” party does not know or does not want to know how Realpolitik is done. So far, they have not been able to reach that group in the USA making decisions on Georgia. This cannot be helped even by the contract signed with the US lobbying company Chartwell Strategy Group on January 27, which is close to the Trump administration. I think this step comes too late. Those who criticize Georgia today made that decision. Even members of the Trump team have started using the wording of the neo-conservatives. That is, a political consensus on Georgia may be reached between Trump and the neoconservatives. This is the biggest danger. Impeachment has been Trump's main concern of late, but not the only one: he has many other problems, too, namely, Iran and Ukraine. And Trump has some pretty bad associations with Georgia, not least because Mikheil Saakashvili dumped him. This fact was confirmed during the official visit of US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to Kiev, when he refused categorically to meet Mikheil Saakashvili and, according to some, asked who Saakashvili was. Given the geopolitical situation, and in light of the congressional pressure, the neocons might make Trump Administration agree with their criticisms.

There is also an important fact to be explained here, namely that the US has several "red lines". Specifically, their interests are classified into four types: vital interests, major, important and peripheral. Major interests are, for example, protecting US business interests anywhere and supporting geostrategic projects, and the Anaklia project is one such project. Georgia refrained from escalating its relations with Russia and did not join the sanctions. I am not saying that this was against our national interests, because we are victims of Russian aggression and therefore it would require more caution from us than from any other country. But it happened that Russia became our main trading partner and the number of Russian tourists increased. This was not overlooked by the Americans and they always criticized us for that. Pompeo also said that the Anaklia project was important to them, but the Anaklia port project failed. All this crosses those "red lines", and no-one knows what the Trump administration will do at such a time. Moreover, there are amateurs in Georgian Dream. How can Irakli Kobakhidze be sent to the US when he has a communication problem in Georgia?! We saw the result of this. And as soon as the US-Georgia relationship entered an undesirable stage, the Kremlin immediately reinforced the Chekist direction in the region. Dmitry Kozak is now to oversee the Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions. Surkov was replaced by Kozak, the chief negotiator of the same Minsk Treaties. Prior to that, Kozak was able to solve the Transnistrian problem and was distinguished for his rigid approaches. Replacing the relatively liberal Surkov with Kozak, who is also a good negotiator, already reveals Russia's attitude to us in the wake of a slightly complicated relationship with the US.

Kadyrov seems to have received a signaling message: either know your place and role, or you will be replaced with a more loyal figure acceptable to the Chekists. I do not rule out that Kadyrov might be offered any position at the federal level. With that in mind, Kadyrov appears to have stepped back temporarily because he is afraid of being eliminated. If I am not mistaken, there were several attempts to eliminate him in 2016-2017, which were further portrayed as if attacks by the Islamic Caliphate, but apparently, the Chekists were behind it. It is a fact that Kadyrov's enemies in the North Caucasus have become stronger, and Kadyrov knows this. It is not so easy to eliminate Kadyrov; Putin is not omnipotent. Kadyrov's removal is risky for the Kremlin, as he created his vertical in Chechnya, and nothing can be resolved without him. Chechnya's loyalty to Russia depends on Kadyrov. At the same time, Kadyrov has a 24,000-strong paramilitary group that could oppose to Moscow and launch a third war if Kadyrov is ousted. It is possible that his paramilitary group might well join the Islamic Caliphate of the North Caucasus and no-one knows how the situation will develop then.

There are also significant upheavals in Ingushetia, and the Kremlin has been working hard to neutralize the situation. This may blow up the North Caucasus and how the scenario will unfold is already a topic of a separate discussion, and will directly affect Georgia. This is confirmed by the mere fact that the Chekist clan has already taken over the Caucasus, including Georgia, and not just occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region. So, we should expect some surprises in the next 2-3 months. Negotiations with Kadyrov now seem to be underway. In my opinion, it is very likely that Kadyrov will be persuaded and reconciled with the Chekists. It is possible that Kadyrov will be charged directly with Georgia. Especially since the Kremlin will be trying to use Georgia's confrontation with the US to its advantage.

By Vakhtang Maisaia

Ramzan Kadyrov. Image source: voanews.com