What Will the World Order Be Post-COVID?
At this stage, the issue of what will happen after the Coronavirus pandemic and what impact this unknown phenomenon will have on the development of political processes at local (national), regional and global levels, becomes urgent. It is really important to predict and to model the development of such scenarios, and to some extent it is necessary to do so. We have to imagine that the geopolitics of this virus has already changed the overall lifestyle at all levels and the rhythm of each person's life. In this regard, four main features must be distinguished, within which we can talk about the effect of this influence. These include: 1) Political model; 2) Economic model; 3) Social model; and 4) Psychological model. Based on these four features, we can clarify the scenario at the local (state) level.
In Georgia.
Political model: It is expected that the situation will become complicated and some political forces will turn the political situation in favor of their own interests, given the post-pandemic conditions. This will be facilitated by the parliamentary elections and the attempt to artificially aggravate the situation.
Economic model: Of course, the post-pandemic period could be followed by a rather large economic recession and the creation of a currency corridor where GEL fluctuations will be inevitable and unemployment will rise, leading to the reformatting of the economic system.
Social model: Under this component, the situation may become quite critical, if serious social reforms are not implemented, such as "shock therapy" measures in the field of social redistribution. The structure of the social market will change and the priority will be given to more high-tech professions.
Psychological model: Here, we have a small "pandemic" of social psychosis and psychological disorder, which will be caused by the accumulation of hidden negative psychological discharge during the quarantine period and the need to erupt it on a large scale. Attention should be paid to the increase of the criminogenic situation and the creation of an aggressive environment over a short period of time.
Globally.
Political model: The situation will have a significant impact on the conditions of the world order and will create a three-pole or tripolar order, where the main geopolitical influence center will be China, the United States and Russia. It is possible that certain types of disintegration processes in certain types of regions may develop and increase the threat of international terrorism. The importance of international organizations and the process of globalization may be temporarily weakened. Geopolitical relations between these three centers of influence will get strained.
Economic model: In the global economy of the post-pandemic the scenario of "Great Depression" and the process of energy security vulnerability will take place. It is possible that solid currency units may be weakened and at the same time, this may stimulate high-tech innovations and projects. The conditions of the "North-South" economic order may change and take a more geosocial orientation.
Social model: In this regard, the post-pandemic situation will go further in terms of nationalism and may take a civilizational phenomenon, which will be a novelty directly for reforming the parameters of ethnic and national identity. The phenomenon of global socialization may lead to a more integrated scenario at the expense of uniting different societies. Samuel Huntington's theory of a "clash of civilizations" may not be so chimerical and mythical.
Psychological model: In this model, interesting events may develop, starting with psychological neurosis at a global level and the same syndromes may develop in all countries; and then there will be even more social adaptation and the desire to unite within any specialized direction, such as environmental protection. There will be a growing trend of mystification and the spread of myths like "conspiracy theory", while the process of strengthening religious faith will be consolidated.
By Vakhtang Maisaia
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