A Divided Eurasia

Op-Ed

Global shocks caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus set out numerous unexpected developments in the economy, health sphere, and politics. Other trends were already in motion well before the pandemic. One such development was the emergence of an increasingly divided Eurasian. The continent which holds the key to global trade, politics and various earth resources is set to be a major battleground in the 21st c., with several states trying to attain a certain level of influence over their neighbors or far-flung territories.

The pandemic accelerated this trend, with the US and China cast as direct competitors. Along with China, other Eurasian powers are emerging, which aim to shift the post-Cold War balance of power. One interesting sphere where major Eurasian states are establishing zones of influence over their immediate neighborhoods is in the techno-economic sphere. Using technological prowess to achieve geopolitical aims might not sound an especially novel trend, but the current scale of the competition is far exceeding any previous developments. We are witnessing the emergence of so-called ‘techno-economic blocs’. This is when the coronavirus plays a defining role, as its effects will likely speed up the decoupling of such emerging blocs.

These emerging technological or techno-economic blocs are based on competing technological platforms. Companies in the US, China, EU states, and Russia are creating new types of communication dependencies among the populations across the region, and among the governments that rule them. For example, Russian platforms like VK.com, Odnoklassniki.ru, Moi mir, Mail.ru, etc. are being turned into the same tools of geopolitical influence as the existing dichotomy of American and Chinese Facebook and WeChat, Amazon and Alibaba, Cisco and Huawei. Their aim: to compete over large swathes of Eurasia.

As argued above, this trend fits into a geopolitical constant of the emergence of spheres of influence coinciding with the pursuit, by a rising or re-emerging power, of higher status in international affairs.

The South Caucasus is right in the midst of this accelerated trend, and is vulnerable to competition among regional and continental powers. Considering Russia’s increasing geopolitical ambitions in the South Caucasus, the use of and information spread via popular Russian social networks, Odnoklassniki.ru, VK.com and other platforms, in Georgia and the neighboring states, is of a particular importance.

All these platforms aim to collect vital security information (passwords, usernames) on as many people as possible, preferably in the neighboring states. Since there is a considerable shift in Russia to control the country’s advanced technological platforms through the state security apparatus, the personal information eventually could be used for geopolitical purposes. We are essentially entering an age of total control, not in the sense of the totalitarian state system seen in Soviet times, but in terms of the ability of state apparatus to collect information on millions of people living abroad. Put in the context of the intensified military and economic struggle, the technological competition gains crucial importance for all.

By Emil Avdaliani