NATO on Georgia’s Mind Before Warsaw Summit
On May 24-25, Georgia’s Defense Ministry (MoD) hosted its 10th Defense and Security Conference (GDSC) involving dozens of leading security practitioners and international experts. The event principally aimed at helping the MoD and its head, Tinatin Khidasheli, prepare the ground for the upcoming NATO Warsaw Summit in July.
The GDSC was matched with Georgia’s 25th anniversary of independence and high-level joint exercises of Noble Partner by NATO troops from the US and UK, wrapping up with their Georgian counterparts in order to highlight the deepening cooperation between members of the Western Alliance and Georgia’s Armed Forces.
In his opening speech, Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili once again promoted Georgia’s deeply held motto: “More NATO in Georgia and more Georgia in NATO,” emphasizing the reality that Georgia is a willing and able provider of security for common European defense.
James Appathurai, NATO SecGen’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia who was specially invited to the event, highlighted that “NATO strongly stands by its Open Door Policy,” adding that Georgia has all the tools for Alliance membership.
In addition, Ben Hodges, a commanding General of the United States Army Europe articulated that “security and stability in Europe starts in the Caucasus.”
It has long been a matter of political speculation whether to accept Georgia to NATO or provide the ‘successful South Caucasian state’ with a sufficient carrot to revive and enhance a sense of strategic patience in her openly NATO aspiring population.
Notably, GDSC’s first day was entirely dedicated to NATO enlargement perspectives, asking the questions, “If” and “When” the enlargement might take place. Interestingly, almost the full majority of the renowned panel speakers agreed that Georgia has met all the criteria and has done what was necessary to become a full-fledged member of NATO.
In the second part of the GDSC, Russia’s informational propaganda against Georgia as well as the wider West was largely discussed. The experts and leaders broadly talked about nontrivial challenges triggered by Russia’s hybrid warfare in Ukraine and beyond, declaring Vladimir Putin’s establishment as one of the major threats for the old continent and its neighborhood.
Surprisingly, representatives of Georgia-sceptic countries, such as France and Germany, who have long demonstrated reluctance about Georgia’s NATO membership, were underrepresented at the recent conference. Bearing in mind that these two nations have a key word in the Alliance accession process, it could be assumed that the process of Georgia’s NATO membership is not completely on track.
More precisely, even though Georgia was promised eventual membership in the Western Alliance at the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, and the country has been enjoying its Substantive Package granted in Wales in 2014, the question whether the political, in another words audacious, step will be made by all the 28 Alliance members, still remains unanswered. In this context, Georgia is widely requested to retain her strategic patience and wait for the ‘right moment’ for her eventual membership.
US Ambassador to Georgia, Ian C. Kelly, referring to George Orwell, said at GDSC that ”for Russia, all countries are sovereign but some countries are more sovereign.” The same reality is clear for European and US leaderships. At the same time, fishing in troubled waters could be a theoretical tactic where Georgia’s strategic patience is concerned. When is this ‘right moment’ going to arrive? What could Russia do other than occupy one-fifth of Georgia’s territory, Ukraine’s Crimea and an important part of its eastern regions, or do what it is doing in Syria?
For the Georgian government, it might be worth considering an increase in performance in terms of working with the so-called “Georgia sceptics.” This path could only be pursued through active diplomacy and proactive foreign affairs. It seems that the MoD has done its part and the level of political actions should be enhanced that will finally bring Georgia to the Alliance.
Meanwhile, Georgia is getting ready for its 2016 parliamentary elections, which will play a significant role in the country’s future democratic life. If Georgia passes her major test of the year successfully, it could be a huge step forward for her on the European and Euro-Atlantic path.
ZVIAD ADZINBAIA is an Analyst at Georgia Today, covering security, foreign policy, as well as domestic politics of Georgia. He is academically affiliated with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS). From autumn 2016, Zviad will be joining the Tufts Fletcher School as a Master’s student in Law and Diplomacy.
Zviad Adzinbaia