Damage Already Done: Ogden on Brexit

OPED

I read a quote from Admiral Bill Fallon of the US Navy the other day, in which he said that the West had its chance to fully stabilize Eastern Europe during the 1990s while Russia was weak, but 'blew it'. Looking at the state of things now, it isn't hard to imagine Europeans saying the same thing ten years from now.

By the time this goes to print, the United Kingdom will have voted whether to remain a part of the EU or not. If Britain leaves, a plethora of problems will rear their ugly heads; London will attempt to negotiate trade deals with the Union, which will likely be in a punitive mood and unwilling to help a country which it feels has turned its back on the continent (indeed, Wolfgang Schauble, the German Minister of Finance, flatly stated 'Out is out' with regards to dealing with Britain after a possible Brexit).

The Leave campaign have put their hopes in establishing deeper ties with the English-speaking world, something which it is currently unable to do due to EU laws which lock in most of Britain's trade with the continent. The Leave campaign claim that Britain will be better served by closer association with its sister nations of Australia, New Zealand and Canada (as well as its American cousins), while establishing links with Europe on its own terms.

However, after President Obama flatly stated that assisting an independent Britain will not be a priority for the American government (and his successor is unlikely to have a different stance on the matter), the UK could find itself somewhat adrift; Scotland might make another bid for independence, and with an uncooperative Europe unwilling to help, political and social anarchy is not an unrealistic prospect.

Furthermore, French dissatisfaction with the EU is fuelling nationalism within its member states, most notably in France, Austria and Greece. A British exit could set off a chain reaction and the Union could conceivably collapse.

Yet even if Britain remains, to some extent the damage has already been done.

Should the Leave campaign fail, other parties in other countries might be buoyed by the thought that their campaign to quit might succeed. In addition, coverage of Brexit has shown just how divisive the issue has proved, and it is in this way that Georgia's prospects of membership are at risk from internal factors as well as the EU's characteristic reluctance to grant Georgia anything meaningful.

The West's policy of 'Next year' promises to Georgia every year since 2003 have already caused enthusiasm for both the EU and NATO to wane. A British exit from the EU could make matters significantly worse; the idea that one of the EU's most prominent members would quit an institution that has been talked of as one of the best hopes for Georgia's future will certainly call into question the benefits of membership in some circles. Georgians, being prone to bouts of fierce nationalism, will also not take kindly to the notion that most of its laws would then be dictated from Brussels, as well as having to partially shoulder the burden of migrant crises or (in the distant future) potentially bailing out the floundering economies of other member states.

I have written about the EU twice on these pages, but never before from the position that the EU needs to rapidly adjust its doctrine in order to still be taken seriously. Georgia's prospects of visa liberalization are more of a hot topic in Tbilisi than Brexit, the EU having promised to deliver a positive verdict before the summer and then delaying discussion on the issue to September. Above all, what is most alarming is that the EU is not honest or intelligent enough to separate the issues of visa liberalization for Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine. Vague details of Georgian criminal gangs in Germany were given as the reason behind delaying discussion of the matter before the statements were retracted; while Georgians have been found to commit crime in Germany, this is often simply petty theft and burglary rather than the type of organized crime common to Russia. Deplorable and shameful as Georgian crimes abroad are (no matter how minor), they pale in comparison to the reported stories of sexual assaults committed by Syrian migrants across German and Danish cities since the beginning of the year. In response to this, Germany has organized seminars and classes on how to treat women in Europe and, while I am the first to admit that the behaviour of Georgian men towards women is often unacceptable, incidents of sexual assault in Georgia are rare. Besides which, with a population of barely 3.5 million, even a mass migration of Georgians to Germany would be but a drop in the ocean compared to the millions of Syrians pouring into Europe.

It is my fervent hope that Europe will come to its senses, and convince those who want to leave to stay and welcome aboard those who want to join. Asking for sense in politics is, of course, a bit like asking for a condo on Saturn, but a man can dream. Yet if things go on as they are, with Russia becoming increasingly aggressive and Europe ever more divided, I can't help but think that ten years from now Brussels might wish it had acted differently.

Tim Ogden

Photo source: finance.yahoo.com