Middle-East Institute Scholar on Biden’s Turkey Visit & Russian Relations

Ross Harrison is a Scholar at the Middle-East Institute and a professor at the Georgetown University in Washington. We asked him to analyze the US-Turkey relations and the impact on Georgia of the latest moves in Turkish foreign policy.

How would you assess Turkey-US relations and the concrete results of Vice President Biden’s trip to Ankara?

I think we have to break down what the objectives of the trip were. The first was to smooth over some of the rough patches that occurred in the wake of the coup that took place on July 15 in Turkey – the Turkish Government’s claiming that Gulen loyalists were behind the coup and their suggesting it was orchestrated by Fattulah Gulen from his home in Pennsylvania. As such, the first objective was to try to reduce the temperature of that relationship. We are cooperating with the Turkish Government to accelerate the extradition request process. But don’t forget that this is something that plays very well in the streets right now in Ankara, so I think President Erdogan is using that to his advantage. So, while I believe the temperature at the official level will be reduced through the Biden visit, I doubt that of the public and media will, because this is politically important for [Erdogan].

How would you assess the ongoing activities on the Syrian border and Turkey’s fight against ISIS?

The United States and Turkey have had troubles squaring the circle in terms of their respective Syria policies over the last year with the US supporting the Kurdish YPG group, the group that Erdogan believes is tied to the PKK in Turkey. But with the launching of an attack by Turkey’s armed forces to liberate El Jerabulus with Free Syrian Army units, under US air cover, it shows that both the US and Turkey are trying to be sensitive to Ankara’s concerns about the US backing an ally that is affiliated with what they believe to be an enemy of Turkey. It also demonstrates that Erdogan has not necessarily moved fully into the Moscow-Tehran axis. I think the timing of that initiative to cross the border during or shortly after the Biden visit was no accident and I think it’s probably an indication that the trip was successful and we are not at a point of an official rupturing of relations between the two countries.

What’s will be the impact on Georgia of the Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Tehran rapprochement?

I don’t believe there’ll be a direct effect on Georgia. I think the biggest concern for Georgia, which is amplified by a rapprochement between Turkey and Russia and Turkey and Iran, is that it puts Russia in a better position in the Middle East. What that means for Georgia is that the Ukraine crisis and the borderization, the creeping border process that is taking place near South Ossetia, is something that is now going to be on the backburner both in the [international] news and for the US. And that’s not a good position for Georgia to be in. So, I think it is more of an indirect effect but still a profound one.

Anna Kalandadze, Voice of America Georgian Service