The Carrot & The Stick: Ogden on NATO

OPED

NATO officials arrived in Georgia this week, and why the government hails this as a sure sign of eventual membership in the Alliance, many Georgian people remain unconvinced and skeptical.

As I do myself. Although I served in the army in my own country, I have a rather low opinion of NATO as an organization and can’t help but think its sell-by date expired fifty years ago. Perhaps when NATO was founded there was some degree of sincerity behind the idea of collective defense, but those days are long over, and aspiring towards NATO membership has ironically helped towards causing conflicts rather than preventing them.

To say that anyone who believes that NATO’s Article 5 collective defense protocol would be invoked for the Baltic States is deluded is perhaps fair enough, since NATO has shown itself to be increasingly reluctant to lock horns with Russia. Even if Georgia is eventually granted membership, lingering doubt over whether Article 5 will be invoked for Tbilisi’s sake will remain; Georgians witnessed the reluctance of the West to lend any meaningful aid to Ukraine when the country was under direct attack two years ago.

There is also a precedent for not lending military aid to fellow NATO members in the event of an attack. Despite popular belief, Article 5 only refers to North America and Europe. During the Falklands War, British territory was invaded and occupied by Argentina but Article 5 could not have been invoked even had Margaret Thatcher tried to do so (although the Iron Lady was, by all accounts, determined that Britain reclaim the islands alone). Aside from muted logistical support from the United States, no NATO allies assisted the British war effort voluntarily, nor did they ever come close from being obligated to do so.

My fear is that in the event of another military emergency in Georgia, this precedent might be called upon to prevent NATO from fulfilling its self-inflicted obligations. It is not hard to imagine a spineless bureaucrat finding some technicality over the fact that Article 5 only referred to ‘Europe’ when it was conceived; this might be taken to mean only Western Europe, which could then be followed by a debate over whether Georgia is in Europe at all: I have heard plenty of people (Americans, mostly; there’s some enjoyment in being a contrarian amongst them, I find) insist that Georgia is actually a part of south-west Asia rather than Europe.

Georgia is not a priority either for NATO or the European Union, but both risk losing Georgia if the country is not shown some tangible results for its years of reforms (and for having sent Georgian soldiers on NATO missions who never came home). Georgian people are tired of empty promises and setbacks; the promised visa liberalization with the EU’s Schengen zone has been delayed multiple times, and NATO’s rhetoric of ‘next year, next year…keep trying…’ has gone some way to damaging the issue of Georgia’s Western aspirations.

The EU has been wracked with problems since the influx of migrants fleeting the Syrian war, with some nations expressing doubts over their membership and Britain taking the (misguided) plunge by voting to leave the Union. However, it is my humble opinion that both NATO and the EU could save themselves by becoming more aggressive.

NATO taking a firmer stance against Russia naturally risks escalation, but at present the Kremlin seems to think it can snub its nose at the Alliance with airspace violations, naked threats and even the kidnap of an Estonian security agent (to say nothing of its blatant military operations in Ukraine). Military exercises in Eastern Europe have gone no length to curtailing Russian aggression, and the playing field of the Cold War no longer seems equal.

The EU could also solidify its position by sudden rapid expansion; it would prove to the Georgian people and other aspirant members that Brussels will put its money where its mouth is, and perhaps even go some length to healing the rift of Britain’s exit (or make it worse; politics is nothing if not unpredictable).

Tim Ogden

Cartoon: Brian Patrick Grady