Georgia & Its Importance for the US

We spoke with Dr. Ariel Cohen, non-resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, on current US- Georgia-Russia relations and his prediction for the up-coming parliamentary elections.

In a HUffington Post article you named Georgia a “key ally” for the US. Why do you think Georgia is so important to the US?

Look, what’s going on: we just had a summit between President Putin, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Iran, Aliyev and Rouhani. Clearly, Russia is trying to put its stamp once again on the South Caucasus and on the Caspian area.

Georgia occupies a strategic position East to West but also North to South. Without Georgian cooperation, Russia cannot resupply its main satellite and its main agent in the South Caucasus – Armenia.

At the same time, we have Iran breaking out of sanctions which President Obama lifted. And you have vast instability in Turkey.

So all that makes the countries of the South Caucasus, especially Georgia, very important; as the most pro-western, most democratic, and most reformed country in comparison to its neighbors. It’s also a country with a clear agenda to becoming a part of the Euro-Atlantic space, despite what Russia wants, despite what Iran wants and some may say, despite what Turkey wants. So Georgia, historically and geopolitically is the most important piece.

Azerbaijan is rich in hydrocarbons, Armenia is Armenia, but Georgia is very important and my concern after being in Washington for almost 25 years, is that the new generation of politicians, of congressional staff, of young diplomats, also one of the presidential candidates, may not fully understand what Georgia is and how important it is.

You also said that the US should expand its support to Georgia. How can Washington influence Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration?

First of all, the US is still, despite all the problems and stumbling blocks of the last 8 years, the most important country in the NATO alliance, it is the most important country in the Euro-Atlantic sphere; I would say the most important country in the world. And what the US thinks or does goes a long way.

Therefore, the US, in my opinion, has to work with our European allies- it cannot run the alliance singlehandedly. For example, Mr. Trump talks about the importance of burden sharing. That’s a legitimate concern. My question is how he articulates it and what is happening when he articulates it. But that aside, the US should put its foot down, so to speak, and maintain a clear idea of how Georgia is integrated in NATO and the EU. We have a major step now with the visa free travel, so with the US committed, the Europeans will most probably get on board.

And I would add another thing: the Europeans are looking for ways to signal to Russia their displeasure about its behavior, about Russian foreign and domestic policies, including Ukraine. One way to signal this displeasure is to work more closely with Georgia, but also with other countries: Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, especially after the transition there, to remain involved in the former Soviet space – a very important strategic priority in my view.

What about Russia? A broken economy and internal problems have little effect and President Putin compensates them with even more foreign influence and expansion. How serious might this threat be to Georgia?

For now I do not see immediate signs that Russia is about to invade. What is happening is more integration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the Russian space. I think it is very difficult to start rolling it back right now, but I do not lose hope.

I hope one day the Abkhaz, and possibly the Ossetians, will understand that Russia is not a good partner for them. But it also takes Georgian good will, Georgian commitment to have good relations, not to blame, not to punish, but to keep the door open for Abkhazia to come back to Georgia.

What about using soft power?

Georgia is not a rich country. Soft power costs money, though military power, hard power costs even more money. This is where a soft power may be a good solution. But I am not of the school that existed in Washington in the last 8 years, including Secretary Clinton, which says that the solution to Georgian security problems is more democracy.

Democracy is very important and I think Georgia should be proud that both elections of 2012 and the elections now seem to show that Georgia has made great achievements. Outside the Baltic States, Georgia has the strongest democracy. Maybe Ukraine is in the same ballpark, but Ukraine had Maidan, Ukraine had the rapacious, very greedy presidency of Yanukovych and his family. Georgia doesn’t have that.

So Georgia has a lot to be proud of in terms of democracy. But both military power and soft power are indispensible elements of independence for Georgia. And I think this government is doing a pretty good job. In my view, the previous government did a descent job with the exception of the catastrophe of 2008. This government is committed, despite Russian pressure, to Euro-Atlantic integration, to work with the EU, to work with NATO, to work with the United States.

Speaking of the upcoming elections, how would you access the pre-election situation in Georgia?

It’s a big challenge. Georgia, despite a short period of democracy in 1920s and since independence, is still a young democracy. It’s an old country, but it’s a young democracy. I think Georgia is doing a pretty good job and the main thing in my view is to have what we call in America an “even playing field:” everybody gets a chance; everybody gets access to the media and that the budgets are reasonably transparent.

The the more transparent and more controlled by public institutions the cash is, the better off everybody is. Also as few dirty tricks as possible, and no violence. Violence is one thing that turns off Western support, American and European. As long as Georgia walks in that corridor, it gets good grades. It got good grades in 2012 and it will get them now, too.

I think it’s an election with a very high level of uncertainty. I also follow politics in Israel. Israel has also many parties, it is easy to get into politics and set up a new party. Therefore, it’s very difficult to predict what the outcome is going to be. I don’t know what the outcome will be in Georgia. And also, in every election campaigns there are always surprises: the surprises that people plan and there are surprises that people don’t. And these surprises always shift the outcomes.

Looking at Georgia, I think it will come down to a very serious horse-trading in the coalition in the parliament: who will get the majority if the two main parties do not get the absolute majority. Again: it has to be open, clean and transparent for the next government to have legitimacy.

Maia Kay Kvartskhava, Voice of America Georgian Service