Constitutional Changes Ahead: Will The President Keep His Palace?

OPED

Although a second round of elections is due, the Georgian Dream (GD) party has already started discussing possible constitutional changes. Some of their representatives, elected through the proportional list, have announced plans their political party will carry out upon the meeting of the new Parliament. The first one is an insertion to be added to the law about the definition of the family, the second concerns moving the parliamentary sessions from Kutaisi to Georgia, while the third is about the constitutional law regarding the general elections of the president. No other constitutional changes have so far been announced, but they will.

According to the main law, constitutional changes in parliament require the support of 113 MPs. The latest data from the Central Election Commission suggests that Georgian Dream is quite close to this result- 50 Majoritarian candidates will compete in the second round, which does create the prospect for a constitutional majority. However, it is only a prospect at this point, since it is quite hard to foresee the course in which the full oppositional electorate votes will be directed: Georgian Dream or the United National Movement (UNM). Already confirmed data suggests that GD has won 44 mandates through the proportional system, and 23 through majoritarian. In total this means that the Georgian Dream lacks 46 mandates to win the constitutional majority. The chances for this are increasing, though, as their ally party the Patriotic Alliance has overcome the barrier, shortening their road towards the “constitutional goal” by 6 mandates. Therefore, the UNM and the rest of the opposition will be facing quite a severe battle next week.

Although the GD chances are good, nobody knows what will happen on the day of the elections - October 22nd. However, we do know exactly what prospect threatens President Margvelashvili and the whole Presidential institute in Georgia in case the constitutional changes are made. At first glance, it might seem comical: why would the GD threaten President Margvelashvili? What sort of existential problem should the presidential institute carry for billionaire Ivanishvili, when there is just one year left until the elections? Let him stay there for another year, let him shake hands with the official guests arriving to the country... as experience suggests, he’s quite good at it. But is this argument enough for Ivanishvili? I guess not. Not while the Presidential Palace exists, which Ivanishvili once described as a “nest of perversion.”

Margvelashvili refuted this statement and, despite prohibitions and warnings, moved into the Residence, by doing so keeping the name of ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili alive in the memory of the people. Moreover, the partisan pardon of his brother-in-law, which might turn into the basis for his impeachment, adds to all of this. It all depends on whether Ivanishvili decides to carry out the plan he had four years ago when he started talking about the constitutional changes and suggested voting for Republican Vakhtang Khmaladze.

The billionaire was unable to fulfill his aim then simply because he was unable to bribe the “blood-sucking” UNM. Yet, in order to attain the full carte blanche now, he will need to bribe completely different people, which in such a poor country as Georgia, isn’t that hard.

But it is unlikely President Margvelashvili will face the preparation for his impeachment without having done some “homework” himself. As little as the pardon of political prisoners ex-Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili and ex-Mayor Gigi Ugulava would be enough- having them out of prison would turn the political status quo created after these elections completely upside down.

These doubts are enhanced even further if we recall the closed meeting that was held between President Margvelashvili and one of the leaders of the UNM – Giga Bokeria, who is becoming more and more influential within the political party of ex-President Saakashvili. The information that leaked through media suggested that they discussed the possible pardon of Merabishvili and Ugulava.

But it is too early to predict how many “risks” Margvelashvili is ready to take. So far the second round of elections is underway, where the Georgian Dream has big, though not 100 percent perfect, chances. Therefore, as one of the Georgian sayings goes “They should first jump and only afterwards shout hurray.”

Zaza Jgarkava