Politically Active? The Ambitions of the Georgian President
OPED
The second round of Georgia’s 2016 parliamentary elections has yet to be held, but the media is already talking about the next elections- the presidential ones.
The main focus right now of the fourth government of Georgia is the President and the events taking place in his Administration. The press has been openly discussing the fact that President Margvelashvili is inviting the leader of the defeated Free Democrats party, Irakli Alasania, to the Security Council to occupy a post which has been vacant for quite some time. They also report on the cooperation between the President and other “faces” of the oppositional wing. Political analysts believe that the President has become more active because of the upcoming presidential elections.
Rumors about the formation of a new political center around the President are nothing new. The local media was spreading information about secret negotiations, allegedly about the formation of a new political alliance, held between President Margvelashvili, one of the leaders of the United National Movement (UNM), Giga Bokeria, and Irakli Alasania, even as far back as during Garibashvili’s premiership.
A TV announcement made by the leader of the Labor Party, Shalva Natelashvili, added to the newspaper articles, in which he revealed the details of the “Last Supper” held in the borough of Dusheti saying that, “A great deal and great conspiracy is being worked on. Every weekend the leaders of the UNM, Bokeria and Machavariani, meet in Dusheti at Margvelashvili’s house and negotiate the creation of a new political center.”
Both media and the leader of the Labor Party were deceived then, since the confrontation between the Prime Minister and the President continued in such direction that President Margvelashvili did not deviate towards any political power. Naturally, the “new political center” went unformed.
Although today the relationship between the President and the new premier is significantly better- President Margvelashvili feels no threat of being kicked out of the Presidential Palace nor is he banned from taking part in any international official meetings, this does not mean that the “Margvelashvili problem” has been solved for Georgian Dream. The announcement about future constitutional changes has once again proved the confrontation between him and the ruling party is ongoing. The GD plans its revenge by making changes in the Constitution, seeking to deprive people of their right to elect a president and to grant that to Parliament, where it itself holds the majority. It is easy to foresee the political future of President Margvelashvili if these changes are really made.
According to the new legislation he will not be able to raise his candidacy for a second term and he will not be elected by the parliamentary majority – this will mean a political knockout.
Does the President have any political resources to repel this attack? As Archil Gamzardia, an analyst close to Georgian Dream, says – he does: “The attempt to form a new political power around President Margvelashvili has been voiced a number of times. He has driven the political process before the elections quite well and he does have certain resources he could use to form a new political center. Why didn’t he take this step before the parliamentary elections? Probably because he was unable to summon the support of society on time, but now, after the elections, all the conditions are ripe and he can make his political move,” Gamzardia said.
Political analyst Vakhtang Dzabiradze also holds no doubts about the political potential of President Margvelashvili. He believes that it would be right for the pro-Western powers to consolidate around him. “When the President took a number of decisions opposing Georgian Dream, and here I do not mean entering the Presidential Palace, I asked a question– does the President have the ambition to get involved in politics more actively? And to be honest, he is a young man, why shouldn’t he want to take part more dynamically in the management of the State and to unite politicians around him for this purpose? However, the main issue here is whether he will take the steps in this direction or not... If Margvelashvili intends to enter politics more actively, he needs a political organization and not just a few leaders around him, therefore, by inviting only Alasania, he is making a mistake,” Dzabiradze said.
The President prefers to keep silent about the alleged formation of a new political center at this stage. Alasania himself has denied receiving an offer from Margvelashvili. However, this does not mean that Margvelashvili has given up on a political future.
As such, we should not strike off the possibility that one day soon, the President may unexpectedly call a briefing in which he will publicly announce: “I am forming a new political party.”
Zaza Jgarkava