USA-Russia Relations at a New Low- Return of the 1962 Caribbean Crisis?
The recent processes in global politics have apparently gone above the heads of Georgian society, which of late is interested only in petty local politics. This is why Georgia is slowly disappearing from the so-called international radar. However, a new kind of geostrategic tsunami is gathering strength in the vicinity of Georgia – the Black Sea geopolitical area, vitally important from the national security perspective.
The deterioration of relations between Russia and USA that has recently taken place points to a stalemate in international processes that can affect Georgia’s foreign policy provisions. In accordance with the international law perspective and definition, “war in a legal sense occurs when two or more states officially declare that a condition of hostilities exists between them,” certainly, if one analyzes the condition of two great powers at the time being, one can easily determine that Russia and USA have already declared a condition full of hostilities of geopolitical, geoeconomic and even geostrategic origin.
As for the legal sense, the ongoing war is a clear indication and explanation of such relations between the Russia and USA. This war was declared, paradoxically, not on land, sea or air, but in virtual space. It happened when the Kremlin decided to employ a preemptive strike strategy and ordered its cyberwarfare units to attack the official sites and webpages of the US government and political parties. It is noteworthy that just several weeks before, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized and endorsed the creation of a special service with direct subordination to Putin’s personal bodyguard and most loyal supporter Army General Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard. So appeared the Cyberwarfare Department, intended to coordinate and execute information warfare against the Western community.
This also means that, essentially, Vladimir Putin holds leadership and command of the newly created Armed Forces formation. It seems he has been successful so far: soon after the creation of the new department, American cyberspace was targeted with highly sophisticated attacks from an unknown enemy. Nevertheless, as soon as they occurred, the US state special services – CIA, NSA and Cyber Command - blamed the Russians. Moreover, Vice President Joe Biden announced in an interview with NBC the ongoing preparation for a counteroffensive - massive cyber-attacks on Russian governmental servers and key information institutions, most likely media holdings controlled by the Kremlin. In addition to that, the Kremlin has allegedly also ordered a strike against EU institutions by means of cyberwarfare in an inforwar.
In mid-October 2016, the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee created and adopted a resolution noting and condemning an aggressive propaganda and information offensive on the populations of EU member states, as well as the increase in frequency of cyberwarfare attacks. By the abovementioned definition, this is a declaration of war against Russia at the virtual level. This means that a Cuban or Caribbean Crisis-like scenario is looming ever closer. Moreover, the geoeconomic background of the war is also clearly visible – economic sanctions and economic blockade proclaimed by the White House almost a year ago, including the so-called Magnitsky List barring several Russian officials from the US and the Kremlin’s decision to counter-attack with economic sanctions of its own also means a declaration or, at least, a threat of war between Russia and the USA. And at the last, geostrategic, level a war-game scenario is very likely to develop and can occur at any moment.
Russia has made dangerous steps towards curtailing what its leadership claims to be American aggression against Russia. The 152nd Missile Brigade, possessing Iskander ballistic missiles (500 km range) has been relocated to the town of Chernyakhovsk in Kaliningard Oblast, ready to reinforce the already deployed 26th Missile Brigade in the same area. Additionally, the Kremlin is considering deploying a motorized rifle division armed with Iskander missiles in Kamchatka, close to the Alaska State, representing a direct threat to American territory – with a nuclear strike capability to boot.
On October 18, the Russian State Duma ratified an agreement according to which Russia will be creating a special army grouping in the occupied Georgia territory of Abkhazia, at least 15 thousand strong and possessing tactical assault and defense armaments. According to some sources, the Russian MoD has already deployed four sets of S-400 missile defense systems in Abkhazia, aiming to create A2/AD area denial zones against possible NATO interference in the Black Sea area. In addition, the military HQ currently stationed in Abkhazia also includes local separatist military formations (approximately 5 thousand strong) and is ready to relocate and put on combat readiness level all subordinated military formations as well as the 49th Army units stationed in the Krasnodar Krai region. It would take the latter from 24 to 48 hours to reach Abkhazia, while the Novorossyisk-based airstrike-capable 7th Maritime Division and 10th and 21st Special Destination Brigade attached to GRU leadership would require up to one week.
The strategic exercise named ‘Kavkaz-2016,’ conducted in the North Caucasus region in September included a hypothetical scenario of using a second strategic wave of units from the Central Military District, previously transferred to the European part of Russia from beyond the Urals. It seems that Russian General Staff seriously considers the reality of a war taking place in the South Caucasus. It seems that Russian senior militaries have drawn some serious conclusions from the Russia-Georgia war of 2008.
The third location for military competition between Russia and the US is Syria. On October 15, Russia decided to reinforce its naval grouping in the Mediterranean in order to “promote Russia’s naval appearance in important operative regions of the World’s Oceans,” as the MoD press center claims. Two nuclear-capable carriers “Admiral Kuznetsov” and “Petr Velikii” have entered the operational zone of the Russian Naval Force Grouping close to Syrian shores. It means that Syria is highly likely to become a frontline between the two parties in the near future.
Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia