Revolution Lari
Nobody has any doubts after “Black Thursday” that a pretty harsh and difficult winter lies ahead. After the drastic devaluation of the national currency, the political circles started speaking not only about the alleged economic collapse, but even a revolution.
Analysts assume that the symbols of former Georgian revolutions “Beans”, ‘Roses” and “Brooms” might get a new member “Lari” next spring. The detonator of the new revolution is identified as the 4-point action plan of the government, which concerns Larization of the banking loans, and increased excise taxes on tobacco, oil products and imported automobiles. Whether the former main trend named the “democracy” of Georgian revolutions will be substituted by “economy” this time is hard to predict. Since the stability of the Georgian national currency index is defined by jonjoli, turkey and pork instead of economic parameters, presumably the alleged revolution and the fate of the government will depend on the upcoming New Year feast and gastronomic assortments rather than stock exchanges. Nevertheless, there are some other factors as well.
The parliamentary elections held on October 8 once again proved that the Georgian electorate has a black and white attitude not only towards the parties but towards politics in general. It is not acquainted with transitional tones, and therefore decided not to vote for the Republicans, Laborists or the Free Democrats, instead choosing to distribute the votes towards major players such as Georgian Dream (GD) and United National Movement. Hence, it becomes highly unrealistic that any political power outside parliament today will be able to use this protesting charge of unsatisfied electorate in their favor. “The main trump card of the government is not having a strong opposition and thus a leader for the protesting wave,” says political analyst Khatuna Lazagidze.
The fact that there are currently no distinguished political figures, especially those who know how to “do” revolutions, is nothing new. As they say here, “He who knows this business” and “understands revolutions” is abroad, preparing a new “revolution” against the Ukrainian government. It seems that the billionaire Ivanishvili has accurately evaluated the scale of mine that Saakashvili could represent for the Georgian Dream. It should be easily imaginable what sort of revolutionary fire the ex-president would light in those people whose income has practically halved since he left.
Social dissatisfaction is already present and one of the main reasons these unhappy people refrain from heading to the streets for protests today is the non-existence of a more or less “undamaged political brand” which could consolidate the protest. And exactly this is the main advantage of this government in light of the prevailing crisis. Despite these factors, political analyst Gia Khukhashvili warns the government not to feel at ease, since as a rule the revolution itself gives birth to its heroes and these people can fill the political vacuum. “I would advise our government not to get stuck in to eating, but to get to work before January 15 while we’ll be busy with pork and gozinaki. They should know better that when we finish eating, we’ll be demanding answers. They must prepare a real plan and not the unconvincing one they have presented to date. Otherwise, serious problems might begin. If a protest needs a leader, the leader will be found, if consolidated protests begin, a serious crisis might emerge. And this type of government will have serious difficulties overcoming it.”
That the Georgian Dream and the whole country are facing serious economic problems has long been clear. The important question is whether this “grey mass” which came into power under the name of the Georgian Dream in the 2016 parliamentary elections has the ability to avoid another revolution in our country. For one thing that is already obvious is that the GD won’t be able to reach this strategic goal by bringing figures completely deprived of charismatic energy and leadership qualities to the forefront. Besides, the two-month old elections should not be regarded as an unchanging given for the government. Naturally, many expectations have already failed, there is much frustration and an accelerated and very dangerous wearing-out process of the main governmental project “Bidzina” has begun, accompanied by an imminent revolution, although, we can still presume that the situation won’t get to that point.
Zaza Jgarkava