GIP: Experts Identify Georgia’s Biggest Challenges Going Forward
The majority of experts consulted in a recent survey by the Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) see the new government of Georgia as unsuited to cope with the country’s pressing economic and social challenges.
GIP surveyed around 30 Georgian and international engaged observers and experts about the prospects for Georgia’s future following the October parliamentary elections. The majority of those surveyed doubt that the ruling party Georgian Dream (GD) can live up to its electoral promises.
GIP reports that among the pressing issues is how to stabilize the Georgian currency (GEL), which has been losing value since November 2014, hitting the nerve of the majority of the population who receive salaries in the national currency but have credit in USD.
“Experts are not optimistic about GD’s ability to deal with the problem. 78 percent of surveyed expert pundits said GD will be unable to stabilize the Georgian currency. 22 percent think it is “somewhat likely” the government will stabilize the GEL,” the GIP survey reads.
According to the report, experts are similarly pessimistic about Georgia’s economic growth and unemployment prospects.
58 percent of respondents said the economy would grow by 3-4% annually, and 38.5% expect it to grow by just 1-2%. Only one expert believed the economy will increase by 4-5% under GD. In their election program, GD promised to create 200,000 new jobs by implementing a reform of the pension system, taxes, and infrastructure. However, 93% of surveyed pundits consider this promise to be unrealistic.
The majority of experts also expect foreign debt to increase during the next four years. 33% said it will increase “significantly” and 56% said it will increase “but by an affordable percentage.” Only 7% percent expect the debt level to stay the same or to decrease. Economic growth of 3-4%, as predicted by the majority of experts, will probably not suffice to balance an increase in foreign debt.
Moreover, the survey exposed concerns about GD having the constitutional majority in Georgia’s parliament. Only 11% of respondents said that GD’s supermajority in parliament will affect Georgia’s democratic and economic development “rather positively.” In contrast, 85% of experts said that it would “negatively” affect political processes in the country. Experts’ negative opinions may have been influenced by recent moves by the GD majority to change the procedures for electing the president.
Experts’ opinions diverged on the future of Georgian opposition parties. Regarding the former ruling party, the United National Movement (UNM), 44% said its relative strength and the size of its electorate would remain at current levels. 22% expect UNM to disintegrate further, while 19% expect quite the opposite, waiting for UNM to consolidate and strengthen its position in future elections.
Further, the overwhelming majority agreed that the former president and UNM founder Mikheil Saakashvili has a negative impact on the UNM. 82% of surveyed experts said he had a damaging impact on the former ruling party. Only 11% considered his impact to be even “somewhat” positive.
The experts also lacked optimism about the prospects of the liberal opposition parties. 30 percent of surveyed pundits named the “failure to build a liberal coalition prior to the elections” as the main reason behind the liberal parties’ electoral fiasco. 59% percent identified a combination of factors contributing to the weakness of the liberal center, including the failure to build a liberal coalition and the absence of strong programmatic profiles and political leadership. Overall, experts have a pessimistic view of the future facing liberal parties. 52% percent of surveyed respondents said the popularity of the liberal parties would remain at the same low level and 26% foresee further disintegration leading to eventual political insignificance for the liberal center. Only 22% of pundits have somewhat optimistic expectations, believing that liberal parties will manage to reorganize and perform better in future elections.
GIP says their survey also asked the experts to identify the biggest challenge lying ahead for the country over the next few years and to give recommendations to the GD government on how to improve its policies.
“Amid the ineffectiveness of the current and previous government, the rise of the far right was the most frequently mentioned danger in experts’ comments. Among another dangers the experts mentioned was the GD’s supermajority in the parliament which might be used to further strengthen the governing party’s position, and both the structural and policy inconsistency of the new government,” the report reads.
The GIP survey revealed that the experts believe that a window of opportunity has closed for the Georgian government to implement decisive reforms, since the election cycle is over and there are no national elections planned for the immediate future. Instead, they recommend the government run a better fiscal policy, focus more on infrastructural development and abandon the “larification” policy.
The surveyed experts also gave several recommendations to the majority and the opposition. They say the government should pay more attention to democratic development and be more cooperative with the opposition.
As for opposition parties, experts believe the UNM should free itself from the dominance of its former leadership, including Saakashvili. The respondents also said that liberal parties should collaborate more to have better chances in future elections.
The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) is a Tbilisi-based non-profit, non-partisan, research and analysis organization founded in early 2011.
Thea Morrison