Confederation, Federation

OP-ED

Georgian political experts are quite unconvincing in their evaluation of the information that has been spread in Georgian media about the issue of confederation with occupied Abkhazia and have diverse opinions about the current necessity for arranging a confederation with Abkhazians. The statement by the MP from the majority, Zakaria Kutsnashvili, about granting a special status to the occupied territories, as well as the announcement by the Russian Deputy Russian Foreign Minister and the special representative of Russia for Georgian Affairs Gregory Karasin, who talked about renewing the diplomatic relations with Georgia, was like adding fuel to the existing fire. So, a new scandal has been born.

The theme of introducing a confederational system in our country is not new to the Georgian politics. It has been brought up from time to time with a few year intervals, blowing up the political elites and then vanishing until it is raised once again. There is a feeling that the issue is in a test mode and awaiting its time. And the time works in favor of the “confederation”. It is exactly the time that is stressed when, during discussion, “We, Georgians are losing Abkhazia and in this case, it doesn’t make sense whether the status of Abkhazia will be wrapped up as a confederation, an ally state or federation,” – said political analyst Davit Zardiashvili. And he is not alone in this. As early the 1990s, politicians were actively debating “What is better? Should Abkhazia be an independent pro-Georgian state populated by Georgians? Or a pro-Russian, non-recognized one without them?” At the time, those for non-recognition got the victory, which wasn’t a surprise since only five or six years had passed since the war. But today, when a quarter of a century separaes us from the war of 1992-93, the issue of “recognizing Abkhazia” has a completely different meaning for experts. “It is foremost to reach an agreement on whether Georgians can return to Abkhazia or not. If not, which statehood are we asking for? If we can agree on the cohabitation of Georgians and Abkhazians, the borders will be opened, giving us the opportunity to travel to Sokhumi or Gagra. It won’t be a problem anymore, so let them be a separate state. In a sense, this will be good, since there will be two Georgian states. So, we will have two votes in the UN as well,” said Zardiashvili. Expert on issues of the Caucasus, Zaal Kasrelishvili, also finds it acceptable to start negotiations about these issues. However, he excludes the possibility of recognizing Abkhazia as an independent state. “We want a federation and not confederation. This is the ultimate goal and the issue up for bargaining. They will ask for confederation and we must demand federation. It depends on who gives up what and at what expense,” he says.

Although time works against us, neither is it in favor of the Abkhazians. After they failed the project of resettlement of ethnic Abkhazians from Turkey to Abkhazia, the demographic conditions on the occupied territory have been changing against them. Today, Abkhazians are no longer in the majority, with Russians and Armenians dominating. Only Georgians can change this balance, giving Abkhazians more room to maneuver within the current political situation. This argument might be true, but as the former security minister of autonomous Abkhazia Levan Kiknadze said, the ultimate motif of the war was changing the demographic balance in Abkhazia and eviction of Georgians from the territory. Therefore, he is convinced that Abkhazians and Russians won’t agree to the return of the IDPs. “Abkhazians reached their so-called independence, so I think it is less likely that anyone will want or seriously discuss the issue of confederation and the return of the Georgian IDPs. Even in the times of Ardzimba, Abkhazians were agreeing to confederation, which meant that they could raise the issue of separating from Georgia. That is why we refused then. But now, when they already have the so-called independence, why would they want a confederation with us?” asked Kiknadze.

Notably, Gregory Karasin also made a statement about the theoretical possibility of a confederational system for Georgia with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And interestingly, the next round of Georgian-Russian negotiations will be held on February 7th in Prague, where Mr. Karasin will meet with Zurab Abashidze, the special Representative of Georgian Prime Minister for Russian Relations Affairs.

Zaza Jgarkava