New Strategy for Jihadist War Game or New Terrorism in Eurasia?

Terrible terrorist acts in Russia, in Saint-Petersburg, in Astrakhan and in Rostov-na Donu, have reminded us of “Global Terrorism,” a menace close to our borders and for the entire geopolitical space that is Eurasia. Certainly the manner and type of brutal acts committed in the above-mentioned cities clearly underscored the “signature” of the aggressive non-state actor – ISIS involvement in these cases, and indicates how real the danger is in the near future, including in Georgia (on April 5 there was a false-alarm on an act of sabotage in Tbilisi that demonstrated a serious attempt of some underground cell representatives to possibly probe the reaction of the national law-enforcement agencies). Before the matter is cleared, it is more diligent of us to remain wary and once again go through what our region seems to be facing.

Eurasia, or rather the Post-Soviet space, has long provided transit routes for foreign fighters and drugs destined for the Islamic Caliphate and its various proxies and interests. Now a new dimension to these operations has emerged – arms smuggling from the Post-Soviet space to the Middle East. Illegal Trade of Arms Smuggling is defined as: “sales, shipment and delivery of arms and weapons, conventional or even mass destructive, by parties beyond recognized international law regulations and frames that contradicts to interests of international cooperation and undermines global stability”. This definition clearly covers any arms sales or deliveries to ISIS. There is high demand for Soviet/Russian weaponry systems, and the Islamic Caliphate (IC) combat units very often use these types of armaments. Therefore, it is not surprising that arms smuggling to the IC has steadily increased over the past few months, and that these arms are coming from the Post-Soviet space where these weapons are freely available, and even stockpiled in some places.

There are many routes from which the smuggled arms reach the final destination, including the South Caucasus region and Georgia in particular. There are three main transit routes: the “Northern” route, “Northern-East” route and “Western” route. However, many others are also used, including some which pass through Central Asia and the North Caucasus. These routes will continue to supply the IC as long as Russian/Soviet weapons remain popular with its fighters. They are popular not just because they can be readily obtained but because they have distinct merits. These include: the fact that they are easy to use and perform combat operations very efficiently; they are appropriate for the location in which they are used; they can be obtained in large numbers due to a stream of high-volume weapons deliveries to Syria and Iraq since the Cold War period; and they are familiar to many IC combatants, since around 40% of IC fighters are citizens of Post-Soviet countries and have served in their armies.

The financial and economic resources of the Caucasus Emirate, Islamic Caliphate and other ISIS networks are obtained in some very interesting ways. They include:

• ransom;

• racketeering – the most common method used by Dagestan supporters of the CE (as stated in this Russian-language documentary movie – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1f6E5L-5vQ);

• Zakat – one of the obligations placed on Muslims is the giving of charity as alms from the surplus of their wealth at the rate of about two-and-a-half percent. The proceeds of these Zakat donations are to be used only for the welfare of the needy in an Islamic state. Under the cover of supporting the needy in ISIS-controlled territory, substantial financial inflows are being acquired from Muslim communities around the world, and will continue to be, as the donations are in accordance with classical faith principles;

• purposeful donation - money freely donated to ISIS by Muslims abroad, mainly Chechen refugees and adopted citizens of Western European states;

• smuggling of drugs and arms illegal trade – drugs are being smuggled from Afghanistan by the “Taliban” on the basis of a mutual support agreement between CE and Taliban leadership negotiated between 2008 and 2010. They are transited through Georgia, the three tones of liquid heroine seized by the Georgian MIA in July 2014 being one such consignment. The same transit routes for arms smuggling coincide with drug smuggling transit ones in ratio: one-to-one and do not differ from each other;

• the “Khavala” system – a special informal agent collecting informal financing from passive supporters, used by all the main international Islamic radical groups, such as Al-Qaida, the “Taliban”, “Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan” and ISIS. The funds are traditionally used to wage jihad at global level. The Khavala system is also popular in Georgia and has been successfully used by the local Jihadist cell, not least in order to finance the so-called “Lapankuri special operation”;

• “Caucasian” Cell Donation – these are made by North Caucasian warlords, mainly by Chechen and Dagestan ones who have taken an oath of allegiance to the IS leadership;

• Robbery and Criminal Actions – these take place mostly in the North Caucasus republics through sometimes occur in the South Caucasus, driven by radical Islamic ideology;

• Recruitment of Islamic Mercenaries – vast sums are being paid to Islamic fighters by other parties to get involved in the various conflicts in the post-Soviet space;

• Hybrid Sabotage Operations – namely this type of operation is considered to be occurring in Saint-Petersburg, in Astrakhan and in Rostov-na Donu, and it means that “semi-sleeping” cells in the North Caucasus are being activated, and even specially trained so-called military sabotage groups have appeared on the scene, probably having passed at least three months of special training on ISIS-controlled territories in Syria and Iraq.

Combating terrorism is not easy, as it is a multi-faceted endeavor which is not pursued with weapons but by winning hearts and minds. ISIS is growing with each bomb dropped, and has become a functioning state providing the services any state would provide. The longer it does this, the more this will seem a reasonable state of affairs, and Georgia has a part to play in preventing this outcome.

Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia, From Varna, Exclusively for Georgia Today

Photo source: New York Times