Left to the Bear? Georgia in the World of a Le Pen Victory
INTERVIEW
With the second tour of the French presidential elections keeping all of Europe on its collective toes, we in Georgia are wondering just one thing (well, two things, frankly: one involves Mr. Macron’s wife and isn’t discussed in this article): IF, however big that if might be, Madame Le Pen becomes the next president of France, what impact will it have on Georgia? And this is what we spoke about with Mr. Regist Gente, resident correspondent of Le Figaro in Georgia, in a joint interview for Panorama TV show and GEORGIA TODAY.
The French elections are widely touted as a zero-sum game for Europe. That if, for example, Le Pen wins, that will be the end of Europe. Is it really this serious?
Le Pen winning is still unlikely, as she is not the favorite. But if she does, it will result in a big crisis in France. The majority of French society remembers the history of her party, which is connected to our fascist history. It’s not enough to say you're a patriot to be a patriot. The history of the founders of this party, these patriots, were collaborating with the enemy, the Germans in the second world war. If Le Pen comes, she says she’ll announce a referendum to ask people if they want to be in or out of Europe. In that case, I think that French people will vote to leave the EU. But we're still very far from that - leaving Europe and the Euro would be very difficult and very costly and she 'll have forces against her, businesses who do not want to leave. She’ll have to compromise with them. For example, in the US we saw that Mr Trump came along with big ideas but after three months gave a lot of them up.
If Le Pen were to win, what would change for Georgia, considering her ties with Russia and her last chummy meeting with Putin?
You’re right to mention her meeting with Mr Putin. It says a lot about our independence towards Russia in this case. Of course, for Georgia it'll be bad because obviously she will have an anti-NATO agenda and will want to reverse the relationship with the USA, at least to counterbalance it with Russia. So, Georgia will be left to Russia. If the Russian bear wants to eat Georgia, she wouldn’t move to stop it.
She may also declare that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are independent states or belong to Russia, as she said about Crimea… Is there a danger that France might recognize our breakaway territories if Le Pen wins?
I don’t think anybody is raising this question at the moment because it is too far and too small, I'd say. What's more pressing is the issue of Crimea when she said, “Crimea always belonged to Russia”. It's simply not true!
In June, France will have parliamentary elections
Yes, and if Le Pen has a majority, things will get ugly. You may win the power but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has its own rules, its own agenda. And can one person can change that? It happened with Mr Trump – he had some ideas but he had to change a lot. Behind you is a party, there is the opposition, the MFA, the MoD, secret services, business community and a lot of other people [to consider].
And Emmanuel Macron? The darling of the Centrists and a seeming favorite- a guy with no real party background and who was never part of a political system although he held a ministerial post
Macron is still the favorite candidate. His idea is that right and left does not mean anything anymore. And let’s go beyond the parties. He has huge support. Even from the President, as well as from the most important ministers which support not socialists but social-democrats. So, he’s well poised to win, but then again, I’d be loath to predict anything with the race being so close.
Vazha Tavberidze