French President Macron & What’s in Store for the EU & Ukraine
Emmanuel Macron, at just 39 years old, became the youngest President of France this week. He promises to "defend Europe," and in debate said that he would not "draw closer to Moscow."
Macron won in the second round of the presidential elections in France on May 7, receiving 65% of the votes. His pro-Russian rival, Marine Le Pen, immediately recognized her defeat. Let’s analyze what France's new policy towards the EU and Ukraine will be.
What should the EU expect?
Macron advocates rapprochement with Europe and proposes the creation of a parliament and budget for the Eurozone. While his electoral contestants raised the issue of revising relations with the EU, following the election, Emmanuel Macron stated that he sees his task as protecting the interests of France and the European Union.
"I will defend France, its vital interests, its image, its message. I pledge before you: I will defend Europe, the community of destiny chosen by the peoples of our continent. At stake is our civilization, our way of life, our freedom, our values, our common plans and hopes,” he said in his speech on Sunday evening after the announcement of his win.
According to the director of the Institute for Socio-Political Design 'Dialogue,' Andrei Miselyuk, Macron is better known as an investment banker. In the EU, he will pursue a pragmatic policy and try to change the bureaucratic structure of the Union," the expert says.
"Macron is set to raise EU growth and to overcome the difficulties which led to Brexit. [Macron] said that no reform can end in Frexit, so it will also require effective efforts from the EU," Miselyuk adds.
During the election race, Macron rarely touched on the topic of Ukraine. However, he openly declared that he did not support Putin and spoke in favor of extending the sanctions against Russia until the Minsk agreements were implemented. During the debate with a rival for the presidency, he said that France will not move closer to Moscow.
"Russia must fulfill its obligations in the matter of the conflict in Ukraine and the war in Syria," he said.
Ukrainian experts believe that the relationship between Ukraine and France will not change fundamentally. However, Macron winning the election is good news, because his main rival Le Pen is configured to cooperate with Russia. Political scientist Vladimir Voloshin believes that Macron will continue to follow the German policy towards Ukraine and Russia.
"If Le Pen had won it would have been an unpredictable issue for Ukraine and Europe. Now, no fundamental changes are expected and it is in everyone’s interest that it be so. Largely, public opinion demonstrates a desire for a reduction of sanctions against Russia, so Macron will have to listen to this opinion,” Voloshin said.
However, the influence Macron has will depend on the composition of the new parliament. The French will elect deputies of the National Assembly on June 11 and 18. Voloshin predicts that neither the right, the left, nor the centrists will be able to gain an absolute majority. Because of this, Macron will have to seek political allies.
"After Brexit and Trump's victory, there was serious concern that populists and extreme rightists would dominate Europe, and although France managed to hold it back, the threat remains," the political scientist adds.
Miselyuk believes that while there is no clear position on Ukraine from Macron, it will have to be built. And what line France will take with Ukraine will be clearer by autumn.
"Macron will act specifically and pragmatically in comparison with Hollande,” Miselyuk said. “Hollande did not have his own line for Ukraine; he was following the Merkel course, and now Macron will have to build his line on this issue. He has already said that he has his own demands for the EU. He’ll retain the country's participation in the Norman format and perhaps France will not be as passive as it was under Hollande. But he will have to reckon with strong pro-Russian positions in France. It would be wrong to say now that Macron has a clear plan for Ukraine. We’ll know more come autumn," the expert says.
Poroshenko congratulated Macron on winning the presidential election and thanked the leader of "Forward!" for their support of Ukraine: "Your position during the election campaign gives confidence that with your victory, Ukraine has received a reliable ally both in the Norman format and in its efforts to restore Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the Ukranian president said in his message.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Groysman also had a congratulatory message for Macron: "I congratulate Emmanuel Macron on his election to the presidency of France. The people of France once again confirmed their devotion to the present values of democracy, I wish the newly elected president success and I hope that Ukraine will continue to have reliable support on the part of France," he wrote on Facebook.
Dimitri Dolaberidze