Georgia. A Rebalancing Act
Emmanuel Macron’s election as French president reinvigorated European unity. What seemed a fragile state almost a year ago, with nationalist parties gaining momentum all over the continent, today’s Europe is if not entirely cured, nevertheless with a new momentum for continuity.
A year ago the migrant crisis was sparking internal debates on reconstituting border control and keeping a united front (sanctions) against Russia and its actions in Ukraine. Brussels also received a blow from the UK's decision to leave the EU. However, the region in which the EU's problems had a real effect was Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. Ukraine and Georgia, being major aspirants to joining the Union, were most concerned that the inward-looking Europe would be ever more reluctant to have them as members.
Macron’s victory, along with the conservatives’ win in the Netherlands, now leaves fewer chances for nationalist parties to enjoy their previous support. While it does not mean that the threat to European unity is altogether extinct, Germany and France are now more confident in moving Europe towards further integration while standing firm against Russia.
A United front?
The reinvigorated Europe is what Georgia and Ukraine need as both countries experience military intervention from Russia through support for pro-Moscow separatist movements, whether in eastern Ukraine or Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is not to say that Tbilisi and Kiev are close to becoming EU members. Geopolitical constraints still remain paramount. From Brussels’ perspective, the political situation in the South Caucasus is too unstable. Russian forces almost enclose Tbilisi on three sides – South Ossetia/Samachablo, Abkhazia and Gyumri (Armenia). Moreover, the simmering Nagorno-Karabakh conflict puts further brake on the region’s stability.
However, it is in Georgia’s vital interests to keep all options open. While the country maintains its pro-western course, from Tbilisi’s perspective, maintaining even a semblance of normal relations with Moscow serves the state interests. This could be called a rebalancing act, when the actor tries to keep good relations with all the major powers in the region. Russia has been resurgent over the past decade and despite maintaining a unified front against Moscow, the EU is still in no position to match the Kremlin’s military power in the region.
A Rebalancing act?
It is in these political circumstances that Georgia finds itself between its EU aspirations and a strong Russia. A reinvigorated EU could ratchet up pressure on Russia by providing further financial support to Tbilisi. NATO could be another tool to influence Moscow’s behavior in the region, although the membership is a far-off perspective. Another way to rebalance resurgent Moscow’s behavior in the region for the Georgian government would be to strengthen its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan (see my previous article).
Yet another actor for balancing out Russian resurgence could be China with its economic role in the region. Beijing has been increasing its influence in the region through investments and trade and considers Georgia, with its Black Sea ports of Batumi and Poti, as a link for its massive ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Chinese involvement in the region is surely for the moment limited only to economics, but the deeper Beijing is involved to defend its assets around the world, the bigger the possibility that China will eventually become a security partner in the South Caucasus. True, Russia and Moscow could also cooperate on numerous issues regarding security in the South Caucasus. However, even then Moscow and China’s geopolitical imperatives would be at odds with each other, increasing the possibilities for disagreement.
Thus, Georgia being at the crossroads of East and West has again found itself in difficult geopolitical circumstances when numerous regional powers compete with each other to project influence into the South Caucasus. Georgia today pursues what it has historically – rebalancing each of its bigger neighbors with the other. Byzantines against the Iranians, Ottomans against the Persians and nowadays Russians against Turkey, Iran, China and the EU – these are the geopolitical combinations Georgia has for centuries used to its advantage.
Emil Avdaliani