Georgia & Nepal: Making Choices

Op-ed

Buffer zone geopolitics is always interesting for the international relations pundit. A buffer seeks to protect via a powerful neighborhood. The history of the buffer state has always been both colorful and something to fear and we can make comparison between two such colorful stories in Asia and Eastern Europe (Caucasus): Nepal and Georgia.

Both are situated in the buffer of a powerful neighborhood: Nepal is poised between India and China and Georgia is at the crossroads of Russia and the European Union, all economic and geopolitical giants of the world. Georgia is among the former Soviet Union satellite states and Nepal remained under the sphere of “influence” of the British Empire throughout the 19th and 20th century when the East India Company ruled over India.

Both countries suffer poverty and what some consider an “unstable” governance system, contributing to fear of being seceded or annexed by their neighbors. According to the ADB basic statistics, in 2015 in Georgia 20.1% of the population lived below the national poverty line whereas in Nepal, 25.2% of the population lived below the national poverty line.

Historical evolution

Russian Czars had control over Georgia from 1801 to 1918 and after 1922, it became part of the Soviet Empire. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, Georgia became independent in 1991. During the Rose Revolution in Georgia in November 2003, the then-Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze was ousted, ending his 11-year reign.

Nepal’s modernization followed the bloody revolution of February 1951, which saw the ousting of the family regime of Rana. This was the foundation of Nepal’s democratic governance and inclusive politics. Nepal’s democracy has been highly unstable, with the democratic government sacked by then-King Mahendra in December 1960, and the imposing of the party-less ‘Panchayati’ system, which continued until 1990. 1990 was the bottom-line of Nepal’s mammoth diffusion to globalization. After the 2006 second People’s Movement, it abolished the monarchy from Nepal and a Constitutional Assembly was held to draft the inclusive constitution. The Assembly succeeded in formulating a constitution after the second attempt.

Nepal’s geopolitics has always played a key role in its transformation process. From the 1951 to the 2006 changes, India was the key international negotiator. Similarly, in Georgia, both the West and Russia are key players in the country’s political transformation.

Geopolitics

In Georgia, after the 2003 Rose Revolution, Mikheil Saakashvili became the president, working for democratic and economic reforms. His western orientation and Georgia’s involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq through provision of troops for the US army made him Washington’s golden boy. The then-Bush administration promised him Georgia’s potential entry to NATO which chilled relations with the Kremlin and contributed to the landing of Russian boots on South Ossetian soil after the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit.

India supported opposition groups in Nepal, primarily the Nepali Congress, one of the most prominent and oldest Democratic Parties of Nepal, to protest King Gyanendra’s direct rule and leading to his stepping down. After the second Nepalese People’s Movement in 2006, India’s two-tier approach to the ‘Constitutional Monarchy’ and ‘Hindu state’ in Nepal changed dramatically. Nepal thus became a republic and secular, however, such a massive shift was the product of 10 years of civil war led by Maoists in Nepal, though India was always at the epicenter of every Nepalese political evolution.

India is very much suspicious about welcoming other geopolitical players into Nepal’s political process. Even China in most cases remained ‘muted’. The West, particularly the US, Britain and EU, is the largest humanitarian partner of Nepal and occasionally supports the geopolitical melodrama there.

Nepal and India have enjoyed visa free access since the signing of the 1950 Peace & Friendship Treaty. In February 2017, the EU granted visa free access for Georgians to the EU, one of the biggest milestones in integrating Georgia to that Union.

Since 2003, Georgians have been enjoying pro-EU political leadership. Nepal has little exception to India, as many Nepalese political parties were grown and harbored there.

New geopolitical discourse

In May 2016, the US announced the launch of a new ground-based missile defense system in Romania. Similarly, in May 2017, Nepal’s official entry to the One Belt, One Road (OBOR), China’s greatest road and maritime development vision, without New Delhi ‘approval,’ marked a new geopolitical discourse in the region.

In May 2016 (and again now, in July 2017), the US and British armies have held joint military drills with the Georgian army despite Russian opposition. Nepal also held joint military drills, with China in April 2017, despite no green light from India to do so.

Choices

Even under the vicious circle of arms and army, the small country of Georgia has started making choices. The Kvirikashvili government in 2016 announced visa-free access to Saudi Arabians in order to grow Saudi business in the country, especially for livestock and agriculture, which increased by 200 percent in 2016 to $100 million.

In total, 118,249 Indian and 104,005 Chinese tourists visited Nepal via air in 2016, topping the chart. In comparison, Russian visitors are the largest spenders in Georgia, dishing out an average of $491 per trip.

Georgia gets around 800 million cubic meters of gas every year from Azerbaijan and ultimately exports to other countries via the Poti Sea Port of Georgia’s Black Sea. In comparison, India transfers 200,000 kilo liters of fuel every month to Nepal, fulfilling 100% of its energy demand.

In October 2016, Georgia received EUR 30 million from the EU for modernization of the Georgian public administration, while Nepal was selected by the Millennium Challenge Corporation for $500 million in grants to develop its 400 KVA transmission line as well as to maintain its 300 km of roads.

Despite such diplomatic heatwaves and the cutting off of diplomatic channels between Russia and Georgia following the 2008 war, Georgians and Russian diplomats are still meeting to facilitate trade and infrastructure development between two countries, whereas Nepal’s leadership is seemingly engaged in making a new government every nine months and Nepali leadership rarely talks economic matters with its Indian counterpart.

Georgian leaders have started making their choices and deciding what is best for their country. But the Nepali leadership still fears relegating to the radar between the Indian and Chinese establishments. It’s time they, too, started to make choices.

Saurav Raj Pant is an International Development Consultant and International Relations Research Associate based in Nepal.

Saurav Raj Pant