The Enemy Within & the Hopes of the Tbilisi Mayoral Candidates
Op-Ed
Generally, summer is regarded as a “dead season” in politics and this summer has been no different, with the exception of the visit of the Vice President of the United States, who woke up the dozing Georgian politicians. Despite the two-day awakening, everything quickly returned to the same summer slumber. The political elite has vanished behind the scenes and is starting to prepare for the forthcoming autumn marathon. Local elections will take place on October 22, a day of expected political drama, melodrama and comedy.
Although the summer idyll is still dominant and the scent of the upcoming elections can’t quite be felt yet, Tbilisi is still an exception in this sense. Candidates for City Mayor have already started their election campaigns. One former footballer, two former journalists and one NGOist are the current options for Tbilisians.
A study from NDI looked at the ratings of the four which suggests that the former footballer from the governmental party (Kakha Kaladze) is leading with 30 percent of voters favoring him; former journalist and independent candidate Alexander Elisashvili holds the second position with 19 percent. The second ex-journalist, Zaal Udumashvili, is just one percent behind the former while the candidate who left the United National Movement for the European Georgia party, former NGOist Elene Khoshtaria, has only four percent. The data shows that the UNM firmly holds its electorate and their former or present members stand at 22 percent altogether. This closely resembles the results of last year’s parliamentary elections. The autumn marathon could end in a real drama for the governmental party candidate, proven by the results of 30 percent which can’t ensure his victory. Kaladze’s situation is heavy and what might have been his political triumph may end up nothing more than a dramatic finale.
It is not only important for him to gain a victory over his rivals, but also for his fellow party members, who apparently don’t want to have another informal leader in their team. Especially when their formal leader is the active Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili. The very first hints of controversy can be seen, as the members of Team Kaladze and Team Kvirikashvili openly oppose each other in Parliament. Leader of the majority, Archil Talakvadze, and the Chairperson of the Georgian Dream fraction, Mamuka Mdinaradze, who are regarded as members of Kvirikashvili’s “team” have been opposed by the Majoritarian MPs from Kaladze’s quota and accused of an alliance with the United National Movement. In order to win, Kaladze will have to spend a lot of money and energy. He should fear most his own internal enemies. A number of groups are against him in government and these people will skillfully try to weaken his ambitions and at the very least work on a second round of elections being necessary.
It is also important to consider for whom the chair of the directly-elected President is being prepared for the next six years. If we analyze the recent actions, Kvirikashvili is trying not to allow there to be an alternative for the post. Bidzina Ivanishvili likes respected but subordinate and positive people. In this sense, the Premier can only be compared to the Head of Parliament. Former MP Valeri Gelbakhiani spoke of the controversy between Kaladze and Kvirikashvili, announcing that who has more supporters in the Parliament “is being investigated”. “For now, all MPs are subordinate to Bidzina Ivanishvili and afterwards to Kvirikashvili or Kaladze. When Ivanishvili failed to attend the announcement of Kaladze as the candidate for Major, there was total confusion among these MPs. If they become assured that Ivanishvili is no longer interested in Georgian Dream, the re-grouping will begin. The battle between Kaladze and Kvirikashvili is exactly for that moment,” Gelbakhiani said in an interview with newspaper Alia.
Why is Kakha Kaladze slow to start a full-fledged election campaign and to win the hearts of his “team members” and their supporters for good? As mentioned before, apparently the “dead season” is to blame. Most Tbilisians are in the regions or on the coast in August, therefore, this is the best period to work on the election program, the team and the lists. As for September and October – this is when Kaladze’s serious campaign will begin, when he’d have to prove that he is the best not only to the opposition but also to the members of his own party. Victory over the opposition in the first round will give him a big advantage for the year 2020. Although the government will do everything to keep Tbilisi, many from the governmental party would be happy to demonstrate that Kaladze’s success largely depends of his team rather than his personal authority or money.
Zaza Jgarkava