To Cross or Not to Cross: Saakashvili at the Border

Op-ed

The increasing number of fires in Georgia might get a new addition. This time, not a natural but a political disaster is oncoming, but of a scale that would bring even more damage to the Georgian Dream (GD) government than the real fire did to the Borjomi and Abastumani forests. What Mikheil Saakashvili plans to do on September 10 at the Polish-Ukrainian border checkpoint is set to bring about a real heat, the flames of which will undoubtedly reach Tbilisi. Especially seeing as the government has reissued a request for Saakashvili’s extradition and the cell is ready and waiting for him in “Matrosov” prison.

The pompous ceremony at Tbilisi City Council celebrating Ukraine’s Independence Day and attended by Prime Minister Kvirikashvili further proves that the expected “fire” has brought official Kiev and Tbilisi closer. The PM’s attendance was not accidental, with the reason for the closeness of the two countries their common enemy, Saakasashvili.

The GD government has been asking Ukraine for the extradition of “Poroshenko’s Favorite” for some five years, yet, instead, he was promoted to the post of Governor of Odessa. Throughout that period, the once-partner countries nearly became foe, even sinking to addressing each other in official notes alone. Kiev reprimanded Official Tbilisi for ignoring the country on the international arena, while Tbilisi accused it of protecting “criminal” Saakashvili.

Now, everything has changed, with the ex-President of Georgia suffering major problems from the Ukrainian side: dismissed from his post, deprived of citizenship and banned from entering the country. Tbilisi and Kiev reconciled in the unity of one dream: keeping Saakashvili as far away from their countries as possible, because him showing up in either of them is dangerous for the respective political elites.

However, GD is well-aware that a Saakashvili in prison is far more dangerous than one free in Poland, Brussels, New York or even Kiev. President Poroshenko also knows that Saakashvili in Kiev would mean at least a new Meidan, or could even result in losing the majority in Rada. Naturally, Saakashvili is using this situation to his advantage and, as political analyst Gia Khukhashvili said, is getting both governments to play his own game. “Both Ukraine and Georgia are playing according to his plan, thus finding themselves in an idiotic situation. Ukraine has gone beyond crazy and is acting quite inappropriately by setting up barriers on the border... Saakashvili is quite amused with all of this. Instead of marginalization, both governments are holding PR campaigns for him. They don’t know the rules of this game. I believe it was Ukraine that addressed Georgia with the purpose of frightening Saakashvili so that he would change his mind and not bother to come,” Khukhashvili told Metronome.ge.

So, what will happen on September 10 at the Polish-Ukrainian border? Will the third president of Georgia cross into Ukraine? The answer to this question is unknown. Before the local parliamentary elections in 2016, Saakashvili promised his electorate that he would be back in Georgia “no matter what,” but he failed to meet expectations. Therefore, there’s no way to guess this time round. Georgian political analysts are sure of the future for Saakashvili if he doesn’t cross the Ukrainian border: “I believe that Saakashvili’s political career will be over if he doesn’t enter Ukraine. If he dares to do so, he has a chance of becoming one of the most important politicians in Europe. However, it’s hard to say which powers are supporting him in Ukraine and what he can rely on,” Politologist Khatuna Lagazidze told Metronome.

There is also the legal nuance: Saakashvili has appealed Kiev’s decision about his citizenship in the European Court of Human Rights. If the latter finds the decision illegal, as it did regarding Rustavi 2’s famous case, and this happens before September 10, Saakashvili will have the green light not only at the Krakovets border checkpoint, but everywhere in Ukraine. And then there’s the Georgian border…

Zaza Jgarkava

Photo Source: ft.com