Elections Are Over, Fear the Peace

Op-Ed

Elections are over, fear the peace. That’s about how we can describe the post-election period. Just two weeks have passed since the Georgian Dream’s victory and the old headache of the governmental party has been brought back: Georgian media started talking about Mikheil Saakashvili and his extradition from Ukraine. The years-long extradition ping-pong that started in Ukraine may well be approaching its logical end and soon we’ll be seeing the third President of Georgia in our homeland. The question, though, is where Saakashvili will reside: at home or in a prison cell?

The Government under the Georgian Dream has addressed Ukraine with a letter asking for the extradition of Saakashvili for the fourth time. The first three were answered with a cold refusal. The Chief Prosecutor’s office of Georgia demanded Saakashvili’s extradition in February and April of 2015. The first refusal came from Official Kiev saying, “There is a risk of political persecution,” explaining it by the international treaty to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms in Europe, The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) adopted in 1950. At the time, President Poroshenko’s classmate held the status of the Advisor of the President of Ukraine and was responsible for creating a “team of reformers.” In May 2015, when the second letter from Official Tbilisi was sent, Saakashvili had Ukrainian citizenship and was Governor of Odessa. The third refusal was given just recently, this summer, when President Poroshenko was visiting Tbilisi. The Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine sent a refusal to their Georgian colleagues asking for more information on the evidence. Apparently, Tbilisi did sent the additional information just in line with the election “triumph” of the Georgian Dream. And so now, everything depends on President Poroshenko and his political taste.

While arguing about the desires of the one who is about to be extradited might seem bizzare, political expert Gia Khukhashvili believes that today the political agenda in Tbilisi and Kiev still revolves around Saakashvili.

“In the times of the current misunderstanding and dementia, which are well-planned by Saakashvili and to which his opponents can only react, it is still Saakashvili who creates the political agenda. Poroshenko is trying to hand over a minimum of half the responsibility to the Georgian government, prevent the storm and lead the negative information flow towards the Georgian government. Saakashvili’s extradition is one big nightmare for the Georgian government,” Khukhashvili declared.

Does Saakashvili want to be extradited to Georgia? At first, it sounds like a strange question, because obviously any normal person would prefer freedom to being imprisoned. Nevertheless, it all depends on the circumstances. So, to put it more correctly, in which case can it be politically profitable for Saakashvili to be sent to Georgia? This is the main rebus in this political equation. In light of the current political situation, Saakashvili’s extradition might equal to a complete political comeback for him! In the worst imaginable case though, even if he is sentenced to prison, found guilty of evading the justice system, all court processes will be turned into turbulent manifestos!

Tbilisi City Court will be in the spotlight of CNN and BBC cameras, making it international news. Even more so as the discussions in court revolve around Saakashvili’s jackets and the so-called illegal dispersion of the demonstration some 10 years ago. Nor can we exclude the possibility that after extradition, the Georgian government might not be able to imprison Saakashvili and the latter might be visiting the courtroom from home. In any case, about 50 European MPs and 10 Senators from Washington could be found who by all means will speak for Saakashvili, therefore the risk that Saakashvili will find himself at home instead of the prison cell is quite high.

“Imagine Saakashvili at the court hearing. Nobody knows what he’ll say and which hidden box from the period before 2012 he will open up. Even God almighty won’t be able to tell the truth from the lies,” said political expert Soso Tsintsadze. “Politically, this will be very unprofitable for our government. Especially in light of the growing distrust of the population towards State institutions. As little as about two ministers are left, who are not being asked to be brought to Parliament by the enraged opposition. This process with further shake that trust. It doesn’t matter whether the information is true or not, no one will be looking for the difference”.

Where will the third president of Georgia find himself, in Kiev or Tbilisi? In his home under internal imprisonment or Matrosov’s prison cell? In any case, he will be that “revolutional bomb” to blow up the revolting masses, even if these are in a minority.

Zaza Jgarkava