A Momentous Week for the World
OP-ED
The past week was full of important events around the globe as well as some momentous geopolitical developments in the Middle East and elsewhere.
In Asia, Vietnam hosted the APEC summit where a range of important global topics was discussed. World attention was drawn to a potential Putin-Trump meeting, but full-format talks between the two presidents did not take place. The Russians blamed it on the American protocol service, saying that it lacks flexibility, according to the Russian President’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
Nevertheless, the two managed to speak on a number of occasions during walks and on Sunday, US President Donald Trump said at a joint press conference with his Vietnamese counterpart Tran Dai Quang, that he considers it necessary to get back to cooperation with Moscow, which will be beneficial for the country and for the whole world.
The two touched upon Ukraine, Syria and not so much North Korea. One might think that this could be a sign that the Russian strategy is working when Washington and European countries increasingly look at Moscow to play a bigger role in those conflicts, thereby creating possibilities for the Kremlin to bargain more effectively with western powers. However, beyond this seeming scenario, there are no concrete developments on the ground in Ukraine to suggest that changes in Russian behavior will follow. Nothing suggests that Europe is willing to compromise either. Several days ago, additional scandals erupted in the US regarding Russia’s role in the pre-election period and Canada introduced new sanctions against Russian officials. All of this pretty much summarizes the current difficult situation which exists in the US-Russia relations and that, as I have written previously, there are core geopolitical differences in the former Soviet space, hindering any meaningful breakthrough in the current standoff.
Iran’s Grand Strategy
Let’s move to the Middle East, where last week Iran-backed forces moved closer to control the Syria-Iraq border. This is a momentous event, as Iran would be able to gain a contiguous land bridge from its proper territory, through north Iraq and Syria, right to the Mediterranean coast. To gauge this development, it suffices to say that the last time the Iranians managed to do this was in the 620s AD, just before the Arab conquest of the Middle East.
From now on, the Iranians will be able to communicate with their closest allies in Lebanon: Hezbollah. Iran is being transformed into a powerful geopolitical player whose influence will be projected over hundreds and maybe thousands of kilometers beyond the state borders.
Those are important developments for our policy-makers to follow, as Iran’s position has been on the rise in the South Caucasus too. I have already written how essential local pipeline and railway infrastructure is for Tehran and the region overall. Iran sees opportunities in the South Caucasus, but it should nevertheless be put into the overall picture unfolding in the Middle East.
In Saudi Arabia, the important arrests are likely to influence the Middle East. Riyadh fears Tehran’s growing influence (particularly in Lebanon). Enmity and accusations between the two increase day by day. Yesterday, Bahrain’s major pipeline was under attack and the government was prompt to accuse Iran (who denied it). This shows that, if continued, the Middle East might be further engulfed in a sectarian and overall geopolitical battle between major regional players.
Towards a More Cooperative Central Asia?
Over the last week it has become yet more clear that in Uzbekistan, under new leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan is set on a course of being more cooperative with the neighboring countries. Tajikistan is likely to renew import of Uzbek gas after nearly five years of near enmity between the two countries under former Uzbek president Islam Karimov. Moreover, the two countries also agreed to reunite their electricity grids. These developments take place as Tashkent voices its concerns over Tajikistan building a large dam on its territory. Uzbekistan, a veritable center of landlocked Central Asia, could serve as a cooperation motor for the entire region. Indeed, the Kazakh leadership already hinted that there would be talks on holding an inter-Central Asian states summit, the first such event in years.
A more cooperative Central Asia would actually have ramifications for Russia’s ambitions in the region. For China, on the other hand, an interconnected region would mean more ease in laying its large pipeline and railway infrastructure projects (often stalled because of the enmity of the Central Asian states towards one another). Either way, what happens now in Central Asia is as important as unprecedented in the past decade or so.
Emil Avdaliani