A New Round of US-Russia Confrontation

Op-Ed

Confrontation between Russia and the US seems to have reached new heights over the past couple of weeks, seeing both sides taking reciprocal steps in limiting each other’s actions.

The US made the Russian RT (Russia Today) register as an agent, while similar legislature was passed by the Russia State Duma to target foreign media operating in Russia. However, the timing of this legislature suggests the Kremlin did this in response to the US actions and to confront US media outlets.

The media legislature could be regarded as a sideshow to those bigger processes which are unfolding in the ever-deteriorating Russia-US relations. The US increases its pressure on Russia on two fronts where the Russians are most vulnerable: in Ukraine and Georgia.

Special US envoy Kurt Volker, and Kremlin aide Vladislav Surkov, met in Belgrade, Serbia, on November 13 to discuss the possibility of peacekeeping forces stationed in east Ukraine. However, since there have been irreconcilable differences between Moscow and Washington, it was likely the talks would largely fail. Washington insisted on Moscow giving up its control of the east Ukraine-Russia border, while Moscow insisted on the contrary. From a purely geopolitical standpoint, Russia accepting the US offer would mean losing control over the processes in east Ukraine. As a result, in a joint statement that followed the Volker-Surkov meeting, we read: “Both sides agreed to reflect on the discussions... and to think about further ways to address this challenge”.

After the talks, the US and Russian envoys also said that their countries have, “different concepts for how to make peace” but will work further to achieve results. Moreover, the differences were so extensive that after the meeting, Surkov said that the US side presented 29 paragraphs and that “only three of them were acceptable”.

That is a clear indication that the US is not going to give up on its and Ukraine’s vital interests. Moreover, additional reports from the last week point to the US further increasing its support for Ukraine. On November 18, ABC News reported, quoting a State Department source, that senior aides will present US President Donald Trump with a $47 million plan to finance and sell high-tech defensive weapons to Ukraine to bolster its efforts to repel Russian aggression in east Ukraine.

This will be a landmark development as it will go against the standard US approach to the conflicts across the former Soviet Union: no supplies of lethal weapons to Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova, so as not to cause further escalation with Russia. The plan in the White House might not materialize for the same reasons stated above, but it nevertheless reflects the current prevailing thinking in the American political establishment.

Somewhat related to the US-Russia confrontation, recently NATO announced the Alliance will be creating two additional command centers in east Europe to better protect sea lanes and improve the movement of troops and equipment within Europe overall. This fits into the process of the west increasing its presence along the Russian periphery to better confront Russian actions.

Moreover, to indicate further ratcheting up of the US-Russia relations last week, it was announced that the US will be increasing its military support to Georgia. From spring 2018, US Army officers will train Georgian soldiers on defensive tactics. The new Georgia Defense Readiness Program differs from previous US military aid initiatives. Previously, the US was training Georgian troops for participation in foreign missions, in particular, the coalition operation in Afghanistan. However, with the new program, the focus will be the defense of Georgia’s own territory against a potential invasion. This is what Georgia has lacked for decades and what was well reflected in the 2008 Russo-Georgian war.

The Georgian defense minister Levan Izoria said before his visit to Washington in early November: “US-Georgia defense relations are advancing to a new level. The US side will allocate more than $100 million for defense reforms in Georgia, which will further strengthen Georgia’s defense capabilities and will deepen the existing strategic cooperation between our countries”.

Thus, overall, the US is increasing its pressure on Russia through various means available, among them increasing support for Ukraine and Georgia as a centerpiece of the US strategy of containment in the former Soviet space.

Emil Avdaliani