Geopolitical Forecast for Eurasia in 2018
Op-Ed
Geopolitics consists of a number of components which rarely change, and if they do, it happens over a period of several years, sending clear signals to analysts what political and economic shifts are likely to happen in the future.
Therefore, although it is not always 100% sure as to what will happen, at least it gives you a clear perspective on where the things now stand between major powers in the region and whether we are going to witness further deterioration or improvement in relations between Russia and the US, or the enlargement of the EU in the former Soviet space.
From a grand strategic view, Russia will continue facing pressure from the US and the EU. It is unlikely that the sanctions imposed on Russia will be lifted when the official deadline comes in mid-2018. Moreover, Putin’s gamble to revive far-right parties across Europe and thus divide the EU from the inside will not materialize for the moment.
Russia hopes that President Trump will be able to improve bilateral relations between the two countries will be minimal. In fact, there are indications that the US will introduce new sanctions against Russian high officials and people close to the government.
In 2017, the US considerably increased its military pressure on Russia in her borderlands. This trend will likely continue as there are indications that the US government has evolved in its position on provision of lethal arms to Ukraine and Georgia, both countries which suffer from Russian military presence on their territories. Georgia and Ukraine have already received US military assistance with enhanced defensive capabilities to help the countries boost their capabilities. It is true that through minor provision of lethal weapons, the military balance is far from being overturned, but the move nevertheless shows how sensitive the question is and will likely remain in 2018. Moscow, as a result, will enhance its military position in eastern Ukraine and Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It is also quite likely that fighting in eastern Ukraine will flare up and become deadlier than in 2017. In fact, January has already witnessed high numbers of casualties from the government forces in Donbass.
Differences between Russia and the US will also touch upon more global military issues. Moscow and Washington will move closer to the final destruction of the iconic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). The treaty, signed between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1987, eliminated for the first time an entire class of cruise and ballistic missiles in Europe. There are many reasons why the countries do so; one of them is that other smaller actors also get their hands on nuclear arsenals. The bilateral INF should be replaced with another mechanism which embraces other world powers. The death of the INF would signal yet another step towards the ever-widening gap between the two countries.
In the Middle East, the US will remain preoccupied with Russian military and diplomatic successes. As Moscow reached high levels of cooperation with Turkey and Iran in 2017, the trend is likely to continue this year as the three countries’ geopolitical imperatives for the moment do not collide with one another. This triangle of Russia, Turkey and Iran is not void of disagreements, but in 2018 it could limit the projection of US power across the Middle East. Moreover, as they experience increased US pressure, cooperation between Tehran, Moscow and Ankara will be further solidified. Looking at a map of the Eurasian continent, one can see Russia in the northern part of the landmass and two bridges which connect it to the Middle East: Turkey and Iran. Having these two countries as close partners increases Russia’s influence in the post-war Syria and elsewhere.
Overall, this year will be yet another one with likely confrontations among major powers, while smaller countries with breakaway conflicts will feel firsthand the ongoing military and diplomatic competition between Russia and the US.
Emil Avdaliani