Non-Use of Force?

Op-Ed

The 43rd round of the Geneva International Discussions (GID) ended, the main participants of the talks being Georgia and Russia, who, unable to come to an agreement on adopting the non-use of force, also failed to reach an agreement as to who would sign the document: Russia, Georgia or the de-facto leaders of the occupied territories. This has been the subject of debate for 10 years now. Following the famous statement made on March 9 by Prime Minister Kvirikashvili, both Moscow and Tbilisi might have thought that Official Tbilisi would finally agree to the precedent of seeing the separatists’ signatures on one of the international documents. However, the expectations did not meet reality for either of the two counties.

For a long time now, Moscow has been trying to make this happen; to see the signatures of the leaders of the occupied territories on any official international document. So far, the attempts have proven futile. But for the Kremlin, the foremost goal is not the signatures, but the fact that an official document can exist where Tbilisi will refuse to restore the territorial integrity of Georgia by force. Since the August War of 2008, the international community has been trying to encourage Georgia and Russia to sign such an agreement, but this has always brought a smile to the faces of those in Moscow who have consistently advised Tbilisi to get used to the new reality; repeatedly recommending they recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and sign the non-force agreement directly with the two “countries.”

So, what happened with the Georgian government after Kvirikashvili’s statement? This is unclear not only to Moscow, but to the circle of political experts in Georgia. It is truly difficult to explain how is it possible that the leader of the Georgian government talks about proximity and a dialogue between Russia and Georgia, and at the same time, the main legislative body of the country adopts a Magnitsky Act-type of document called Tatunashvili-Otkhozoria. What is happening within the Georgian Dream? Karasin himself said that in Tbilisi they have to finally decide what kind of people they want to be: flexible, radical or consistent.

Everything was much clearer earlier, with US Ambassador to Georgia Ian Kelly supporting Kvirikashvili’s initiative of starting direct dialogue with Russia about Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Current Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, also supported the idea, as did the Ambassador of France to Georgia, who said he was looking forward to steps from Russian side in response to this gesture from the Georgian government. And, in light of such international feedback, Georgian Parliament adopted a resolution which poured cold water not only on the hopes of the international actors, but on the Premier’s statement as well. Head of Parliament Irakli Kobakhidze noted of the resolution that the government is not planning to cross the red line when using pragmatic policies with Russia.

This statement from Kobakhidze implied that with his statement, Kvirikashvili had crossed those red lines. The resolution adopted in Parliament can be interpreted as a sort of warning and a hint that there no longer exists a place for the PM in politics. Clearly, the voting on the resolution suggested the same, as even his parliamentary team supported adopting it. Expert Khatuna Lagazidze thinks that there is no such thing as a “Kvirikashvili group” within the parliamentary majority and that it has been replaced by other groups: “The resolution revealed that the case might be connected with the roots of the governmental coalition post-2020 Parliamentary elections, which could be represented with the teams of the current Major of Tbilisi, Kaladze, the Minister of Finance, Bakhtadze, the Minister of Interior Affairs and the former Major of Tbilisi, Gigi Ugulava.”

Indeed, the position of PM Kvirikashvili has been shattered after the swearing incident, proven once again by this resolution. The common laws of mathematics do not work in politics, and especially those of Georgia, hence, 2 + 2 does not always equal 4.

Zaza Jgarkava