An Iranian Expert on Iran’s Place & Aspirations in the Region
What interests does Iran have in Georgia? From political conundrum to economic opportunities, the sleeping (or as some would say, sedated) giant, rich in oil and gas, might spell major changes for the South Caucasus region - if only the regime would change its foreign policy, argues Jamestown Foundation’s leading expert on Iran, Alex Vatanka, who has been giving guest lectures on Iran and the Middle East at the Rondeli Foundation in Tbilisi. GEORGIA TODAY approached Mr. Vatanka for an exclusive interview.
Russia often refers to the South Caucasus as the “near abroad.” Is it the same with Iran? Do they have a “near abroad” sensation when it comes to the South Caucasus and Georgia in particular?
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Iranians basically had two phases in terms of their approach to the northern regions that face them; initially, they were excited, and Iran was one of the first countries to recognize the independence of most of the post-soviet states. They did so for one reason: they wanted to become a key ally early on to these new emerging states. That lasted for about five or six years; now why did it end? In my view for one good reason: because by then the Russians were back in the game, they had returned to the position they’d had during Soviet times. And even before Putin’s ascendancy, Russia considered herself a global power and started describing parts of the world near to it that were formerly part of the Soviet Union as you said, as the “near abroad.” Now, if you're sitting in Tehran, what does that mean? That was probably most likely seen by the Iranians as a message of warning not just to Iran, to Turks and other states: “this is our near abroad, this is Russia's backyard you're not welcome here.” Some countries took that more seriously than others. The US stayed; it was not put off by that warning, but Iran had different calculations that they needed to go through because of its poor relations with the United States and because of Iran's overall isolation on the international stage. It has few friends and Russia is one of the principal partners, so the Iranians had to make a choice between upsetting the Russians by getting into places like Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and so forth in the former Soviet space, or take a step back. That's pretty much what they decided to do.
In 2008, a big example of that “stepping back” was seen in the statements Iran made
Absolutely. And we’ve seen that in terms of Iran’s position on anything Russia does anywhere in the former soviet space. Most interesting is that the Iranians repeatedly throughout the 1990s and 2000s had nothing to say about what Russia was doing in Chechnya, and Iran is after all a country that claims to represent oppressed Muslims anywhere. But there was no defense for Chechnya in Tehran and, as I said before, for one simple reason that it was Russia's backyard and Iran needs Russia.
Going back to Georgia, how much does Iran still consider Georgia and the South Caucasus as part of its historical domain? Do they still lament the Turkmenchay agreement?
No, I think it's pretty safe to say the Iranians do not believe the regime has claims to the South Caucasus and I think that while the Iranian people may lament what happened in the 19th century in terms of those two major military defeats at the hands of the Russians, it’s in the past and nobody is talking about taking those territories back.
What do you think of Iran's dream to sell its energy resources abroad? How might this affect Georgia as a transit country?
Georgia could become a transit point for Iranian energy going north to Europe, which would obviously require some kind of adjustment for the Ukrainians, Russians and others. Or perhaps the engineers can come up with a pipeline option where you can put something in the seabed of the Black Sea and get it to Bulgarian soil under the sea, but now I'm just speculating. The point is, Iran has a lot of oil and gas and yet it's struggling to get it out of the ground and exported because of its foreign policy; so I keep going back to the same theme: the foreign policy is at the heart of Iran's problems. If they reassess their foreign policy priorities, be it on Israel or on the United States, and put the country's interests first, put the well-being of the Iranians first and not pursue an ideological agenda that is basically one that has disturbed the West, if they do that then you’ll see Iran's options very quickly multiply. Iran could become the largest economic engine in this region for decades to come because there is so much money to be made there.
What would Russia have to say about that?
Russia right now benefits very nicely from Iran and the US not having relations; imagine if the Iranians were a normal state tomorrow and suddenly Russian gas had to compete with Iranian in Europe or elsewhere; so if I was Russia, I would be appreciating this weak and isolated Iran and would seek to make Iran more dependent on Russia and keep it that way. They are doubtless encouraging the Iranians not to change their position.
Onto the Georgia-Iran “visa games.” In 2010, we saw Georgia taking back the visa free regime and then reinstating it, while Armenia, which is one of the biggest recipients per capita of US foreign aid, never changed its position
Russia is a bigger factor in Armenia’s calculations and maybe the Russians told the Armenians not to succumb to American pressure. Georgia obviously has a very different relationship with Russia, so maybe that was one factor. Another option is that Armenia simply couldn't do without the visa-free arrangement, while Georgia could. All countries make decisions based on their national interests, and it's no secret Georgia has chosen the United States as its key ally. And when the US knocks on the door and asks for certain things to be done, the Georgians pay attention.
Rarely talked about is the chance that Iran might find potential in purchasing Georgia’s water
There's no doubt the Iranians need more water, as does the entire Middle East. Water will definitely be in demand across many parts of the world. I'm no engineer, maybe it requires a pipeline or other ways of getting the water to Iran, but I don't know what the reaction in Georgia would be to such an idea because water is such a sensitive topic: it quickly touches on the senses of nationalism, it's considered something almost sacred, and there's the risk of angering certain communities in Georgia.
On the other hand, Georgians might be delighted to have their own substitute for Azerbaijan oil; could Georgia's water become Georgia’s oil when it comes to Iran? Would that scenario be realistic?
Iran needs water, so do a lot of countries. How much water can Georgia provide? And how would they get it to the customer?
Would Iran risk making a big investment in Georgia with Russia looming in the background?
If Russia tells Iran that spending money buying Georgian water makes Georgia strong, therefore compromises my position so don't do it, I don't know what the answer to that would be. I’d hope it would be “sorry but we need the water and you need to figure out your problems with Georgia.” Russia has a lot of influence over certain issues when it comes to their own, but you should not mistake Iranian-Russian relations with a partnership, it's a marriage of convenience and is a highly contentious one. There is mistrust on both sides right now: the Iranians are extremely angry that because of American sanctions taking Iranian oil out of certain markets, the Russians are replacing Iranian oil in places like South Korea and Japan. The Iranians will likely think carefully about the option of buying water from Georgia rather than simply listening to what Russia tells them to do.
Another recent development is in the number of Iranians coming to Georgia for short stays or to invest: in the last 12 months, 323,000 Iranians. That may soon be up to a million, the ministry says. What’s driving them here?
One thing is obviously the beautiful landscape, social freedom they can enjoy, which they cannot in Iran; they go to restaurants, they listen to music, they enjoy drinks and other things they cannot do freely in Iran. Another benefit of Georgia is it's a relatively inexpensive country to visit if you're coming from Iran; you spoke about property. Iran is extremely expensive when it comes to buying land and housing and Georgia is very inexpensive in relation to that.
At the risk of sounding slightly populistic, what the average Georgian wonders is are they here to stay or are they here to look for paths into the European Union?
I don't know the answer to that. I'm sure some of them would want to stay, but I would guess that the vast majority are looking to Georgia as a stepping ground to Europe, America and other traditional destinations for Iranian immigrants. There's no tradition of Iranian immigration to Georgia- of the five million Iranians who live around the world, you'll find the numbers in Georgia very small; you’ve got hundreds of thousands in Canada, Australia, the EU and so forth.
Can the fact that Iranians can do in Georgia what they cannot at home (gambling etc.) affect relations between the two countries?
The Iranian regime does not care what Iranians do outside the country; they're not genuinely believers anymore themselves. They know that their people drink, gamble quietly and do all these “sinful” things. What they don't want them to do is to do it at home and question their authority; so they probably prefer them to come to Georgia and do it and then to go home and not do it and then go back to Georgia and do it again.
By Vazha Tavberidze