Georgian Economic Climate (Q3, 2019)

Georgian Economic Climate is a joint product of PMC Research Center and the ifo Institute for Economic Research. In this bulletin, we discuss Georgia’s economic climate as assessed by Georgian economists. PMC Research Center is a regional partner of the ifo Institute, one of the leading economic research institutes in Europe, specializing in applied economic research, policy advising and other services for governments, businesses, researchers and the public. The ifo Institute publishes the World Economic Survey (WES) on a quarterly basis, accurately presenting the current economic situation and forecasts for industrial, emerging and developing economies. 30 experts are participating in this initiative from Georgia. The survey was conducted in July 2019, assessing July- December 2019 period.

In the third quarter of 2019, Georgian economic climate worsened rapidly.

In this period, Georgian economists assessed Georgia’s present economic situation negatively. Moreover, the assessment of the present economic situation in this quarter has deteriorated compared to both the previous quarter (Q2) of 2019 and the same time last year (Q3 of 2018).

In the third quarter of 2019, Georgia’s economic situation in the next six months was also assessed negatively by Georgian economists. In this quarter, expectations in six months worsened compared to both the second quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2018.

In addition, experts predict Georgia’s main economic indicators. In the third quarter of 2019, the main economic indicators are forecasted as shown below.

The semi-annual question

In this quarter, Georgian experts were asked whether the supply of bank credit to firms in Georgia is constrained by bank-specific factors (for example, banks’ health or banking regulation). 77% of Georgian economists reported that the supply of bank credit to firms is moderately or strongly constrained by the bank-specific factors.

Methodology

The ECI is based on quarterly expert assessments of the present economic situation as well as expectations for the next six months. The scale ranges from –100 points to +100 points. An index of –100 means that all experts assess the economic situation as deteriorating (negative), while an index of +100 indicates improvement (positive), and 0 means neutral/no change.

By PMC Research & ifo Institute