Will COVID-19 Vanish With the Sun?

As the world grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, many wonder how the pathogen will respond to warmer temperatures and higher humidity.

US President Donald Trump suggested on February 10 that the coronavirus dilemma would solve itself by April, saying “in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it (COVID-19) will miraculously go away, that’s true.”

The notion that the approaching summer may stem the spread of the illness comes largely from the COVID-19's comparison with the flu. The new coronavirus resembles the flu in that both spread via respiratory secretions and contaminated surfaces, and both cause respiratory illness that can potentially grow into pneumonia. It is also true that most respiratory illnesses do indeed spread more rapidly in cold, dry weather. 

But experts warn that transmissibility of COVID-19 is unique, rendering it futile to suggest the pathogen’s future based solely on comparison with the flu. Many also argue that there is no tangible evidence to suggest that COVID-19 transmission will be affected by the warmer weather, as the pathogen didn’t exist until around November last year.

The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says on its website that “At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when the weather becomes warmer. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing.”

A professor of epidemiology at Columbia University Medical School in NY, Stephen Morse, says “there’s a chance the coronavirus could fade out during the hot summer months; it's possible, but it is wishful thinking. I’d say wait until April, we’ll know then if it’s true.”

Morse also noted that nations should continue their efforts to fight the virus as effectively as they can, ignoring undue prognosis that lacks evidence. 

Several nations have proved that COVID-19 can be handled effectively thanks to rapid, fruitful and decisive responce. China and South Korea, previously two of the worst hit countries, report fewer new cases day on day. 

“The most important lesson is that the virus can be contained if people are responsible and adhere to certain simple principles,” said Dr. Christopher Willis, a physician in Singapore.

By Elene Dzebisashvili