Warsaw NATO Summit Opens With Tempered Expectations for Georgia, Ukraine
WARSAW - The NATO military alliance's landmark summit in the Polish capital Warsaw kicked off Friday amid widespread concerns over a resurgent Russia and an increasingly fractured European Union.
With no end in sight to the war in eastern Ukraine or Russia's illegal annexation of the Crimea Peninsula, growing disillusionment in Georgia - once a steadfastly pro-Western nation - due to unfulfilled promises from leaders in Europe and North America and a crippled economy, as well as the growing anxiety over Britain's role in the alliance following its decision to withdraw from the EU, a long shadow has been cast on a meeting that many see as NATO's most critical since the end of the Cold War more than two decades ago.
Topping the agenda on the first day of the summit, the core founding members devoted a significant amount of time to reassuring its East European allies - particularly Poland and the Baltic republics - that NATO would bolster its eastern flank with a significant troop build-up close to the Russian border.
US President Barack Obama also announced that the deployment of 1,000 additional US troops to Poland in a move he described as a message to Eastern Europe that Washington's commitment to European security would not be compromised by Russian aggression or Britain quitting the EU.
NATO officials have said Britain's vote to leave the EU had helped bolster the need for quick measures that would combat Moscow's narrative that the West's cohesion was slowly beginning crumble.
Representatives of the 28 NATO-member states expect the Alliance to announce a further and more comprehensive cooperation agreement with Sweden and Finland, both non-NATO members, in light of Russia's combative posturing towards the two Nordic nations.
To further drive home the message of unity, NATO and the EU issued a joint declaration at the start of the day announcing a new security cooperation initiative that aims to combat hybrid and cyber warfare, as well as establish joint maritime operations to prevent mass illegal migration from the Middle East and North Africa.
Russia's Response
Any decisive move made by NATO to enhance its weakened position in Eastern Europe is likely to rankle Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin already threatened ahead of the summit that any attempt by either Sweden or Finland to formally join NATO or enhance their cooperation with the military alliance would be met with a major troop deployment on the Finnish border and increased patrols of Russia's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea, near Sweden's maritime borders.
Putin has repeatedly called into question the purpose of NATO's continued existence and is openly hostile to its expansion into former Warsaw Pact countries in Eastern Europe and, in particular, nations that once were a part of the Soviet Union.
He often cites the alliance's expansion into the former Eastern Bloc as the reason for his annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. Putin hoped by intervening he would put an end to Kyiv's goal of joining NATO and the EU.
Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations have done little to quell Russia's fury. Moscow was incensed in the summer of 2015 when NATO opened a large training facility outside the Georgian capital Tbilisi as part of the NATO-Georgia "Substantive Package" agreement signed in 2014.
Earlier this year, Russia's defense ministry identified NATO as the greatest threat to its national security and the Kremlin views this year's summit as a gathering of like-minded anti-Russian forces who gathering to plot against Moscow's policies and contain its geopolitical ambitions.
Despite repeated assurances from NATO members that the alliance's recent build-up is defensive in nature, Putin and his general staff will likely continue to act as if the West is planning to threaten Russia militarily.
Expectations for Georgia and Ukraine
The Georgian delegation, led by President Giorgi Margvelashvili, and Ukraine's contingent headed by President Petro Poroshenko, arrived in Warsaw on Friday with tempered expectations after weeks of speculation that the two former Soviet republics would be offered moral support, but not a binding agreement that would lead to their eventual membership in NATO.
Prior to departing for the summit, Georgia's European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Minister David Bakradze said Tbilisi expects the current alliance members to provide Georgia with more formal commitments that help ensure its security.
Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili said Friday that expects NATO to "significantly expand the substantial package and reiterate the 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit's declaration that Georgia will eventually become a full member of the alliance."
Georgian and Ukrainian officials spent most of the opening day engaged in various ministerial-level meetings discussing further cooperation with NATO members and 24 other partner states.
But despite the newfound drive to strengthen NATO's capabilities, alliance members are highly unlikely to commit to more than a bare minimum with either Georgia or Ukraine, as the alliance is consciously trying to avoid provoking Russia.
For the time being, the Georgian and Ukrainian delegations will have to be satisfied with handshakes and assurances until they receive a formal invitation from the alliance.
Warsaw as a Symbol
Poland, a country that spent the better part of 230 years under Moscow's yoke, hopes the summit provides a greater sense of urgency amongst key alliance members that include the US, UK, France and Germany to take a more active role in bolstering NATO's defensive posturing on its eastern flank.
The Polish government also hopes to use the summit to further highlight the break with its Communist past and transformation into a modern, market-oriented European democracy.
Poland's success story is a powerful one that countries like Georgia and Ukraine hope will be a part of their future. But it is also one that Putin's Russia sees as an existential threat.
By Nicholas Waller