Exclusive: NDI Director on the Recent Poll & “Two Georgias”

INTERVIEW

Last week, the National Democratic Institute’s (NDI) International observation mission assessed the status of the electoral environment at a press-conference (see page 11). GEORGIA TODAY and Panorama TV Show seized the opportunity to have an exclusive interview with NDI Georgia Resident Director, Laura Thornton, on the delegation’s findings. Which, most curiously, included a tale of “two Georgias”.

How would you assess the environment ahead of the elections?

This delegation came in at an early stage. We were aiming at this point to get in before the campaign began so we could put forward constructive recommendations that might have time to be addressed before election day. However, there are things taking place in the general political context that would certainly shape the campaign even before the candidates have been selected, such as the various constitutional and legal reforms, ongoing concerns documented by CSOs and oppositional parties and in relation to media and judication of various disputes or lack of resolution to these disputes. There are a lot of issues flagged for us that we have to keep an eye on throughout the campaign. Not all candidates have been selected. We did meet with four major mayoral candidates who talked with us about their ideas, platforms and challenges. I think the mayoral race will be of great national significance, going beyond Tbilisi. Tbilisi represents 30 percent of the country. I think it’s also a test for the opposition forces to see what their viability is.

You mentioned two Georgia’s during your speech – a rosy one seen by government and a contrasting picture seen by everyone else

I think that’s the million-dollar question. Polarization is not a unique factor to Georgia. If you talk to political elites in a lot of countries, you would see a huge divergence there also. But I think that in the long term it is unsustainable, be it in Georgia or the US. The onus tends to be on the governing party as they are in the position to make decisions and to build that consensus. One of our biggest recommendations has been to be more deliberative, be broader, bring in more voices, have more discussions. This pattern of hasty decision-making without enough feedback is not a constructive way to move beyond these “two Georgias”. And I don’t know which one is correct. I’m not evaluating- I’m simply saying that it was striking when the delegates went to those meetings and had the impression that at one meeting there was one country and then at other meetings it was a different country. It was a very noticeable outcome.

What would you say to the criticisms about the NDI. Your polls and results are not always taken kindly, and some people do openly accuse your organization of running the former government’s agenda

I don’t hear that as much as I used to - the perception that we were aligned to a certain political force. That comes up less and less with each poll. But, certainly, the criticism about the polling has continued and I think it’s just a little bit of a ‘shoot the messenger’ scenario: ‘we don’t like what we hear so we need to discredit the person delivering the messages because it looks bad for us’. A lot comes from not understanding the polling and lack of familiarity with the concept.

One of the most prominent and long-standing subjects in your polls is the enduring popularity of the Church. Were the recent scandal the reason for the decline in the Church’s ratings?

I can’t analyze why that happened. Trust in the Church always been really high and consistent. And in our last poll in April, we saw it go down a little but still remain pretty high. I do think that the timing of this [Cyanide] scandal probably had some effect. We asked about funding. It was interesting not so much that people disapproved of the Georgian church receiving state funding – the majority did approve– but that they thought the funding should be subject to audit.

On to Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The latest polls yielded some spectacular revelations – 23 % of people apparently think that we are already in NATO. Lack of education comes across as a natural explanation, but what do you think should be done about this?

We do a lot of in-depth polling on foreign policy. And we’ve been going even deeper into some of those issues like what shapes peoples’ foreign policy, how they feel about it. We’ve also held focus groups. We’ve learned that there is not enough information, particularly in certain communities. There is a vulnerable population that lacks information, that is susceptible to Russian propaganda, and that is less likely to hold favorable views towards Europe and Euro-Atlantic integration. We know they are older, they live in rural, and particularly in minority, settlements; we know their levels of education and employment status. These things are all related. And the more we can sort out who and where the need is, the better we can target our information.

You also research Euroscepticism. Would you say we’re dealing with anti-western propaganda here, under the guise of freedom of expression?

I don’t know if it’s increasing. It feels like it is but we don’t have good evidence of it. What we do know is that those anti-western messages are sticking; they are finding their audience. We are seeing them reflected back at us in our polls. For example, in our last poll, some people said NATO would harm the Church. You know that comes directly from misinformation campaigns that the West would degrade Georgian morality. In our focus groups, we’ve heard unbelievable stories, like NATO is injecting people with diseases... And the recent protest march is certainly building on these xenophobic and homophobic fears. I believe this is an extremely dangerous trend, and I also believe this is not unique to Georgia. My biggest hope is that at least everyone acknowledges that this is a problem so we can try to come up with ways to mitigate it.

It’s your third year in Georgia. Aside from politics and work, what are your impressions of Georgia?

I love Georgia and I don’t want to leave. I’ve worked for the NDI for almost 20 years but before in south-east Asia: seven years in Cambodia, then Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and I loved it there. But it never felt like ‘my people’, and when I came to Georgia, within hours I was whisked off to a supra and people were shouting about politics and drinking too much wine. And I was like ‘yes, these are my people!’ I’m a New Yorker, so maybe that’s part of it. Of course there are daily struggles living in Georgia and being away from family. But I’m very happy living here. I think it’s a wonderful place. And Georgians are fun and warm and interesting people.

Any minuses?

Just talking from a living-here standpoint, one thing I would love to see as a citizen of Tbilisi is a greener Tbilisi. One of the things I dislike most about living here is air pollution and a lack of green space and constant construction works. I worry about children- about their lungs. I know that a lot of Georgians share this view and I would hope that there can be more pressure put on those that can make a difference with such issues.

Vazha Tavberidze