World’s Population Dynamics & Georgia
Op-Ed
The world’s population dynamics is an important trend to watch as we assess Georgia’s economic and military potential in the coming decades. The overall trend, according to the United Nations estimates, is on the up. For instance, the current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. The estimates count that 83 million people are being added to the world’s population every year, with that trend expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels continue to decline.
Most growth will likely be happening throughout the rest of the century in underdeveloped countries in Asia and Africa. Alongside this is the fact of the world's population getting older. The trend is already observable across many parts of the globe, as medical aid becomes ever more effective, raising life expectancy levels.
In the past, large families were an economic asset, since economies were agrarian and hard work was essential. However, now, women are less inclined to bear children as it is extremely hard to keep up with demanding costs. The availability of education for everyone has pushed women to postpone having children in favor of building a career. The number of children born per woman in the developed world is about 1-2. In the developing world, average birth rates stand at around 3-6 children per woman. Nevertheless, the developing world, too, will at some point reach the red line after which fertility growth will stall. It could even happen that by 2050, the older population will outnumber children aged 0-14. This will mean that the labor force will decline significantly, leading governments, in order to maintain economic growth, to invest further in technological advances.
Trends in Georgia and its surroundings
Like the rest of the world, Georgia’s population growth is dubious at best. Projections and various calculations show that the population will have diminished from 3.7 million to slightly more than 3 million by 2050, primarily caused by low fertility rates and emigration. HIV, so prominent in Russia, and its own case of population decrease, which I discussed on Tuesday, also plays a minor role.
Consider the following data. Since the first case of HIV was detected in Georgia, the number of annually detected cases has risen steadily. There was an almost fivefold increase in the rates of newly diagnosed HIV infections from 2.3 per 100,000 in 2002 to 10.9 per 100,000 in 2013 (2,3). By June 2014, a total of 4,360 HIV cases had been registered at the Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center (IDACIRC), with the estimated total number of people infected with HIV at around 6,400 (Spectrum EPP). The latest figures have yet to be released.
The population dynamics of countries neighboring Georgia vary. In Armenia, the population is set to decrease, while in Azerbaijan it will grow above the current almost 10 million. Growth is also projected in Turkey.
Thus, for Georgia’s future development, one of the major challenges (along with a direct military threat from Russia) will be the decline of its population. This will impact the economy of the country and the potential to thwart militarily any external threat.
One way around this is for Georgia to allow a cheaper workforce into the country, but nationalistic sentiments may create difficulties in this regard. Another solution for Georgia, and which is perhaps more adjusted to the tune of the times, could be to increase investment in the technological sector. Those European countries which face similar problems are investing heavily in telerobotics. The decreased scope of the human workforce will thus be substituted by modern scientific solutions in order to keep to a pattern of economic growth. In other words, with the coming of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, staying competitive and attractive to investments and global supply chains through scientific progress is now as vital as ever.
Emil Avdaliani